Arfy's Ramblings ep.6

• Howard Atkins from Syracuse is the current ba leader hitting .375.  Nearly 20 points over the next guy.
• I don't know what rating would have the most to do with this, but San Juan Leftfielder Ralph Hatcher leads the league in HBP.
• Louisville has 9 position players hitting over .300 and 5 players with Ops over 1.000.
• Ever wondered who the most wild winning pitcher is?  That would be Colorado Springs pitcher Patrick Wilson.  In 90 innings Wilson is 5-4 with a 3.31 ERA.  He is also 9th overall with 47 walks.
• Surprisingly Iowa City leads the majors in Strikeouts on offense.  They have struck out 60 times more than the next team.
• The hardest team to strikeout is Nashville.
• Boston and Madison are hitting over .300 against lefties this season as a team
• Durham is the only team hitting over .300 against righties
• 13 teams have not pitched a complete game this season.
• Rochester is the only team this season that hasn't issued an intentional walk
• The Boston defense is so strong that they have 51 plus plays and only 3 negative plays.  They are also the third lowest in errors.
• 2 insane box scores you have to check out:  Madison vs. Alb game 1  and Madison vs. Alb game 2.
• Did you know?  That there are currently 36 players in the majors that were drafted in the fifth round or worse.  Most of them are catchers and pitchers.  I was expecting this number to be about 2 or 3.  Vancouver Pitcher Quinn Jenson was the most overlooked player in the major leagues.  He was drafted by Skidmark in Season 18 in the 22nd round and selected 731st overall. 

Down on the Farm...

Avisail Martin
Tucson Sidewinders

Score - 58
Hitting - 60
Power - 75
Plate Discipline - 55
Running - 50
Fielding - 55
Range - 55
Arm Strength - 50
Arm Accuracy - 45

Avisail has power as an 18-year old. Lots and lots of power which will serve him well no matter his defensive position. He currently has plus power and looks to develop plus plus power, 75 grade and could move up to 80, as he matures. He should develop his range and be able to stay at second if his glove improves. A move to LF may be in order if his glove doesn't improve enough. Either way, his power and contact will allow him to hit at either position. He will struggle some with right-handed pitchers. He might steal 10 bases with his speed and base running ability. His ceiling is an All Star ML starting 2B with a floor of an All Star ML starting LF. Watch for Avisail in Tucson in 3 to 4 years starting at 2B.

Down on the Farm...

Giomar Cruz
Durham Doormats

Score - 49
Fastball Velocity - 35
Fastball Movement - 55
Control - 45
Command - 50
Sinker - 75
Curveball - 45
Slider - 55
Change Up - 30

Giomar has average control and throws his fastball at 83 to 87 MPH. His sinker is a plus pitch, and he seems to have a good feel for a slider. His movement on his fastball is average at best. His control and his ability to get hitters out will hold him back. His ceiling is as a ML long reliever and his floor as a AAA pitcher. Giomar may make it to the majors, but it will be in a limited role.

Down on the Farm...

Derrin Gwynn
Charlotte Knights

Score - 53
Hitting - 50
Power - 40
Plate Discipline - 50
Running - 70
Fielding - 55
Range - 65
Arm Strength - 45
Arm Accuracy - 45

Derrin currently plays CF, but he looks to move to 2B in the future. His speed is plus. He has a huge hole in his swing, and it covers most of the plate. He struggles mightily against left-handers and may only be average against right-handers. He has no power, and will only be a singles hitter. Once he is on base, he will steal and could turn singles into doubles. He has the ceiling of ML bench player with the floor of a AAA player. Just like his swing, his glove seems to have a huge hole in it. Look for Derrin in AAA since he may not make it to the big show unless his defense and hitting improves greatly.

Down on the Farm...

Carlton Trachsel
Nashville Nalas

Score - 51
Fastball Velocity - 65
Fastball Movement - 60
Control - 65
Command - 55
Change Up - 50
Curveball - 45
Cut Fastball - 20

Carlton was shipped out from Seattle in a package deal with Ed Darnell for Juan Latos. Carlton hits 92 to 95 with his fastball and has good movement, and it is definitely a plus pitch. His change up and curveball are all fringe-average. The cut fastball should be dropped since he could work with three pitches as a starter. He struggles to get opposite handed batters out. His control looks to be plus in the future.  His ceiling is a ML #3 starter with a floor of a ML long reliever. When you are visiting Nashville in a couple of seasons, look for Carlton to be their #5 starter.

Down on the Farm...

Ed Darnell
Nashville Nalas

Score - 53
Hitting - 35
Power - 35
Plate Discipline - 55
Running - 70
Fielding - 65
Range - 75
Arm Strength - 45
Arm Accuracy - 45

Ed will definitely be able to play 2B or possibly CF in the future. His range looks to be plus plus due to his afterburners which themselves are a plus and could become plus plus. He has no power and has holes in his swing. He might hit .210, but with a .320 OBP. Once he is on base, his speed along with baserunning abilities could turn singles and walks into doubles. Ed has the ceiling of a ML starting 2B or CF if his defense and pitch recognition continue to improve. His floor would be a ML bench player due to his speed.

Down on the Farm...

Louie Baek
Philadelphia Moneymakers

Score - 57
Fastball Velocity - 65
Fastball Movement - 40
Control - 65
Command - 55
Curveball - 75
Slider - 55
Change Up - 45

Louie possesses a plus plus curveball which has a 6 inch break. His slider is an average pitch which works well with the curve since it breaks on a different plane. His fastball sits at 92 to 95 MPH, but it is too straight. While he has very good control over his curve and slider, his fastball misses its spots and usually is left over the plate. He keeps the ball in the yard, and generates plenty of misses with the curve. Louie has the ceiling of a ML #2 starter with the floor of a ML #5 starter. At 24, he is at an age-appropriate level. He was injured earlier this season, so we will be looking to see how he recovers. Louie may be in the majors in a couple of seasons for Philadelphia.

Down on the Farm...

Josh Osborne
Iowa City Hawkeyes

Score - 50
Hitting - 40
Power - 45
Plate Discipline - 60
Running - 40
Fielding - 50
Range - 55
Arm Strength - 60
Arm Accuracy - 50

Josh is listed as a 2B, but he has the defensive portrait of a RF. Josh has a long swing which keeps him from making good solid contact. For him to play either corner spot, he needs speed or power. Josh lacks in both. He does know how to take a walk - it is usually back to the dugout. He was recently interviewed, and the question was asked what position he would like to play in the majors. Josh said, "I would be happy to play wherever Iowa needs me to play on the field." With no discernable plus attribute other than his makeup, Josh has the ceiling of a ML bench player with the floor of a AAA player. Don't look for Josh in the majors unless an airplane crashes carrying the whole Iowa team.

Down on the Farm...

Mikey Wells
Dover Dinklebergs

Score - 54
Hitting - 50
Power - 55
Plate Discipline - 55
Running - 75
Fielding - 50
Range - 60
Arm Strength - 40
Arm Accuracy - 45

Mikey's power is what will put him in a ML lineup. It could improve to grade out as a plus. If it doesn't, he may only become a bench player. His defense is adequate for LF with his range a plus for a LF. His future speed grades out to plus plus. He looks like he will hit 12 to 15 homers with 40+ stolen bases. His swing is long although his plate discipline is improving. Mikey's future seems to be as a bench player unless his power increases as he matures.

Down on the Farm...

Eugene Harvey
Madison Masterblastas

Score - 51
Hitting - 50
Power - 65
Plate Discipline - 60
Running - 35
Fielding - 50
Range - 55
Arm Strength - 45
Arm Accuracy - 50

Eugene has the defensive chops to remain in LF. His power is plus, and he should hit 25-30 HRs a season. His swing does have some miss in it, but he will take a walk. The speed is poor which means his CF will have some running to do to cover left center field. His range does play up some due to his ability to position himself well in LF. His hitting was improving nicely, but he currently has a hamstring injury which may limit how much his hitting improves. His ceiling is a ML starting LF with the floor of a ML bench player. Eugene will probably be starting in LF for Madison in a couple of seasons.

Down on the Farm...

Marv Spiezio
Pittsburgh Ironmen

Score - 51
Fastball Velocity - 35
Fastball Movement - 75
Control - 65
Command - 50
Forkball - 55
Slider - 40
Change Up - 40

Marv hits 84 to 88 MPH with his sinker. It definitely is a below average pitch. The sinker does have plus plus movement. He keeps the ball in the park. He has trouble with right-handed batters. His control is good and should improve with repetition. The forkball looks to develop into a plus pitch. He should probably drop the slider and change up. His ceiling looks to be a #4 starter in the majors with a floor of a AAAA SP. Marv profiles to be a ML long reliever in a couple of seasons.

Down on the Farm...

Blaine Moore
Nashville Nalas

Score - 53
Hitting - 60
Power - 65
Plate Discipline - 45
Running - 45
Fielding - 45
Range - 55
Arm Strength - 60
Arm Accuracy - 45

Blaine has a sweet swing and makes good contact. His hit tool is a plus along with his power. He won't steal many bases. His defense profiles as a 1B. He was acquired in a trade with Iowa earlier this season. He looks to be Nashville's starting 1B with 25+ home runs in a couple of seasons.

Down on the Farm...

Arthur Kershaw
Tampa Bay Thunder

Score - 54
Fastball Velocity - 75
Fastball Movement - 60
Control - 45
Command - 50
Slider - 55
Change Up - 40

Arthur has a developing slider that will be a plus pitch. His fastball has decent movement and hits 94 to 98 MPH on the radar gun. He is more of a groundball pitcher which will help him greatly. He doesn't have the feel for a change up. His control is most worrying since he gives up a lot of free passes. Being a first round pick, he will be given every opportunity to make it to the majors. His ceiling looks to be a ML long reliever with his floor as a AAA SP. With his lack of control, only look for Arthur in the majors if an injury hits and Tampa Bay needs a spot starter or long reliever.

Down on the Farm...

Boone Brow
Nashville Nalas

Score - 55
Hitting - 50
Power - 60
Plate Discipline - 55
Running - 50
Fielding - 55
Range - 55
Arm Strength - 55
Arm Accuracy - 60

Boone was drafted as a 3B out of high school. He doesn't profile to stick there. He doesn't have enough in his throws across the diamond. His power and hit tools are plus so he definitely could move to another position and do well. He has a long swing with a lot of miss to it. He has been improving in his fielding, but his speed may limit his range which could keep him from moving to a premium position such as 2B. He may need to move to a corner outfield spot which his bat should still carry him with such a move. He has 20+ homer power with a handful of stolen bases to boot. His ceiling looks to be a ML 2B with a floor of a ML bench player. Boone currently profiles to be a starting ML RF who will hit .250 with a few stolen bases and 20 homers.

Down on the Farm...

Keith Davis
Cincinnati Firestorm

Score - 53
Fastball Velocity - 20
Fastball Movement - 70
Control - 60
Command - 55
Curveball - 60

Keith has very good movement on his fastball although it sits at 80 to 85 MPH. His curveball is a plus pitch that runs away from left-handers and into right-handers. He has to be really careful with both pitches to right-handers. He has good control now and hopefully will continue to improve. It will be needed for him to succeed in the majors. He will have trouble with right-handers. He has progressed enough in the minors that he appears to be an 8th inning set-up reliever. He will most likely be in Cincinnati's bullpen next season.

Down on the Farm...

Jed Carter
Washington D.C. Justices

Score - 65
Fastball Velocity - 75
Fastball Movement - 75
Control - 65
Command - 65
Curveball - 65
Change Up - 45

Jed hits 95 to 98 MPH on the radar gun with his fastball. It is a plus plus pitch. The curveball is a plus pitch and has the potential to be a plus plus pitch also. He has good control and looks like he has room for growth. He will have some problem with right-handed batters. The fastball movement along with a wicked curve will make for many strikeouts and allow him to be an effective closer. Jed has the ceiling of an elite closer with the floor of a very good set up guy. At 20 years of age, he is already at AA which is ahead of schedule. Look for him to move to AAA next year and for him to be in the majors as Washington's lock-down closer in two years.

Down on the Farm...

Pat Rocker
Tucson Sidewinders

Score - 53
Hitting - 55
Power - 65
Plate Discipline - 60
Running - 45
Fielding - 55
Range - 55
Arm Strength - 40
Arm Accuracy - 45

Pat is listed as a 2B, but he looks to move to LF or 1B in the future. His power is a plus which would do him well in LF and would be great if he could stay at 2B. He should hit around .270 with 25 homers a year. He knows how to take a walk, but does have some miss in his swing. Next season, we may see Pat starting for Tucson. His position will be determined by how his defense improves in the next year.

Down on the Farm...

Randy Pellow
Boston Pilgrims

Score - 53
Hitting - 40
Power - 60
Plate Discipline - 40
Running - 10
Fielding - 65
Range - 65
Arm Strength - 75
Arm Accuracy - 65

Randy has to improve his accuracy of throws to stick at SS. If not, he will have the defense to play at 3B or CF. The offense will not make up for any moves to another defensive position than SS. The power with contact abilities would play well at SS. He positions himself well which makes up for his lack of speed. Randy has the ceiling of a starting ML SS and the floor of a AAAA player. He profiles for now to be a ML bench player.

Down on the Farm...

Carl Carver
St. Louis Arch Angels

Score - 55
Fastball Velocity - 70
Fastball Movement - 75
Control - 40
Command - 50
Curveball - 50
Change Up - 50
Slider - 50
Forkball - 20

Carl has four major league quality pitches with the fastball being his best. His sinker has a great break on it which allows him to get a lot of groundballs. It sits anywhere from 93 to 96 MPH and may add a tick to it in the future. His offspeed pitches work well off of the sinker, and he can throw any of them as an out pitch. The area of most concern is his control. He looks to have a 4.5/9 BB rate if his control doesn't improve. The free passes are what will keep him from being a top of the rotation guy. He may be in the majors next year. He has the ceiling of a #3 starter if his control improves with a floor of a long reliever. Currently, he looks like he might be a #5 starter for St. Louis in the future.

Down on the Farm...

F.P. Gentry
New Orleans Zephyrs

Score - 51
Hitting - 65
Power - 30
Plate Discipline - 50
Running - 55
Fielding - 60
Range - 60
Arm Strength - 45
Arm Accuracy -  45

F.P. is currently injured and on the 60-Day DL. He profiles as a 2B in the future with good defensive skills. He doesn't have much power and might hit 10 HRs a year. He does make good contact with improving plate discipline. He sees righties better than lefties. With his speed, he should steal 20 to 25 bases a year. He looks to have All Star and Gold Glove potential. How well he recovers from his injury and continues to develop will decide if he makes it to the majors or not. In two to three years, look for F.P. starting at 2B for New Orleans.

Down on the Farm...

Mack Dawkins
Jacksonville Juice

Score - 49
Hitting - 45
Power - 65
Plate Discipline - 45
Running - 75
Fielding - 55
Range - 35
Arm Strength - 30
Arm Accuracy - 40

When Mack hits the ball, it goes a long way. He has great power which is plus plus. Since he is a lefty, he naturally hits right-handers better. His swing gets long, and he has a lot of miss in it. With his plus plus speed, Mack looks like he could be a 40/40 guy. His defensive profile looks to put him in LF with an eventual move to 1B. He looks to be a low average, decent walk, and high HR and SB hitter. He will be a ML starter in the future. His ceiling will be determined by how well his contact improves and if he can become more durable. In two to three years, I would look for Mack to be on Jacksonville's ML team.

Down on the Farm...

Willie Colon
Oklahoma City Prairie Dogs

Score - 51
Fastball Velocity - 70
Fastball Movement - 55
Control - 60
Command - 40
Curveball - 60
Split FB - 40
Change Up - 45
Slider - 35

Willie hits 93 to 96 MPH with his fastball, and it has good movement. The curveball will buckle knees. Both pitches are plus, but he has a hard time getting left-handed batters out and struggles some with right-handed batters. He keeps the ball in the park for the most part and may improve in the future. His ceiling is a long reliever and his floor is a AAAA player. Look for Willie in the ML in a couple of years as a long reliever.

Down on the Farm...

Esteban Mesa
Syracuse Crunch

Score - 64
Fastball Velocity - 65
Fastball Movement - 70
Control - 65
Command - 60
Slider - 60

Esteban has the potential to be a top tier closer for Syracuse. He has excellent control and very good command of his pitches. His fastball has been clocked at 91 to 94 MPH and looks like it could tick up two MPH in the future. The movement on the fastball breaks into left-handers and away from right-handers. He has a little trouble with right-handed batters. The slider is a plus pitch while the fastball is a plus plus pitch. He can get a batter out with either pitch. He is a low risk pitcher having already made it to Double A and looks to be handling it well. His ceiling is a top closer with a floor of an above average set up man. Look to see Esteban in the majors sometime next year.

Down on the Farm...

Emil Martin
Fargo Wood Chippers

Score - 57
Fastball Velocity - 50
Fastball Movement - 55
Control - 65
Command - 60
Slider - 55
Curveball - 20

Emil looks to have the ability to control his pitches well. With proper development, his fastball could sit around 91 to 93 MPH with some movement. The slider could be his out pitch if set up well by the fastball. The fastball and slider are both plus pitches. If he doesn't develop another off-speed pitch such as his curveball, he could be in trouble with ML hitters. He looks to have the ceiling of a #2 starter and the floor of a #5 starter. He is starting out in Low A ball, and he currently projects to be a #4 starter.

POWER RANKINGS

RANK	FRANCHISE	W	L	WIN%	RS	RA	xW	xL	SOS	HIT	PIT	DEF	PREV RANK
1	Durham Doormats	39	21	0.650	364	300	35	25	1	2	21	31	1
2	St. Louis Arch Angels	40	20	0.667	327	258	36	24	3	9	9	26	3
3	Boston Pilgrims	38	22	0.633	342	226	41	19	2	4	1	3	2
4	Dover Dinklebergs	36	23	0.610	358	330	32	27	4	1	25	4	4
5	New Orleans Zephyrs	35	24	0.593	345	315	32	27	6	3	23	8	13
6	Vancouver Canucks	34	26	0.567	299	263	34	26	5	16	10	6	8
7	San Juan Pollos Hermanos	33	26	0.559	329	343	28	31	7	7	28	32	5
8	Rochester Retards	32	28	0.533	320	297	32	28	8	14	20	23	9
9	Louisville ARF ARF ARF ARFs	36	24	0.600	324	257	36	24	12	11	8	16	11
10	Colorado Springs Night Watchmen	35	24	0.593	332	289	33	26	11	6	17	27	15
11	Tampa Bay Thunder	30	29	0.508	316	289	32	27	9	12	19	22	18
12	Fargo Wood Chippers	34	26	0.567	320	278	34	26	13	13	13	5	19
13	Houston Roughnecks	33	27	0.550	302	236	37	23	16	15	3	11	14
14	Oklahoma City Prairie Dogs	32	27	0.542	251	243	30	29	15	27	7	20	20
15	Syracuse Crunch	28	31	0.475	328	331	29	30	10	8	26	24	6
16	Iowa City Hawkeyes	34	26	0.567	261	233	33	27	18	24	2	7	10
17	Charlotte Knights	32	28	0.533	265	239	33	27	19	22	5	9	16
18	New York Damage Controllers	27	32	0.458	319	364	26	33	14	10	30	29	7
19	Nashville Nalas	29	30	0.492	333	324	30	29	17	5	24	18	22
20	Jackson Juggernauts	30	30	0.500	262	242	32	28	22	23	6	12	21
21	Cincinnati Firestorm	28	31	0.475	250	277	27	32	21	28	14	14	28
22	Seattle Strikers	29	30	0.492	247	233	31	28	23	29	4	19	26
23	Kansas City Hotsteppers	25	34	0.424	294	289	30	29	20	17	18	13	12
24	Montreal Leaf Blowers	29	31	0.483	279	266	31	29	24	20	11	2	17
25	Madison Masterblastas	26	34	0.433	281	361	23	37	27	19	29	1	27
26	Jacksonville Juice	24	35	0.407	226	287	23	36	26	31	16	25	25
27	Albuquerque Komodo Dragons	24	35	0.407	261	340	22	37	28	21	27	10	31
28	Philadelphia Moneymakers	25	34	0.424	216	263	24	35	30	32	12	15	32
29	Washington D.C. Justices	24	35	0.407	240	284	25	34	29	30	15	28	29
30	Los Angeles Regulators	20	40	0.333	258	316	24	36	25	26	22	17	24
31	Tucson Sidewinders	16	44	0.267	288	384	22	38	31	18	31	21	30
32	Pittsburgh Ironmen	15	45	0.250	261	441	17	43	32	25	32	30	23

Down on the Farm...

Vicente Palmeiro
Albuquerque Komodo Dragons

Score - 56
Hitting - 50
Power - 75
Plate Discipline - 45
Running - 70
Fielding - 65
Range - 55
Arm Strength - 40
Arm Accuracy - 50

Vincente may play in CF, but he will do so with lesser range than the top tier CFs. His power looks to be outstanding, but it might fall just short of elite status. He will hit LH pitchers well, but he will struggle significantly with RH pitchers. If he can get on base enough, he will be a terror on the base paths. If everything falls just right, look for him to be a 40/40 for several years with the potential to go 50/50 a few times.

Down on the Farm...

Rickie Halama
Vancouver Canucks

Score - 61
Hitting - 60
Power - 80
Plate Discipline - 70
Running - 60
Fielding - 50
Range - 50
Arm Strength - 60
Arm Accuracy - 55

Rickie gets an 80 for his potential power. These scores aren't handed out lightly so you know he will crush the ball in the Majors. He will hit for a decent average and be able to take a walk. He will probably steal around 15 bases a year. His defense will most likely move him to an OF corner with RF being his most likely home. He has already proven himself at High A. I wouldn't be surprised to see him move up to Double A soon. Look for Rickie in a year or two in the Majors.

Down on the Farm...

Tim Daubach
Los Angeles Regulators

Score - 67
Fastball Velocity - 70
Fastball Movement - 65
Control - 75
Command - 70
Slider - 60
Change Up - 60
Knuckleball - 40

Tim really only needs three pitches and could lose the Knuckleball. He brings the high heat and then freezes the hitter with his tight Slider and Change Up. His pitches come from the same arm slot which makes it hard for the hitter to determine what is coming. He has the potential of a number one SP.

Down on the Farm...

Jack Brown
Rochester Retards

Score - 52
Fastball Velocity - 35
Fastball Movement - 25
Control - 70
Command - 45
Curveball - 75
Change Up - 60

Jack was the #14 pick in last season's draft. His curveball buckles knees and is his go to pitch. His change up is deceiving since he uses the same arm slot as his fastball. He has a nice smooth delivery which allows him to repeat it. His control is continuing to improve and looks to be plus plus along with his curveball. His fastball is flat, and he throws it at 86 to 88 MPH which is a nice batting practice fastball. He keeps the ball in the park. Since he is a groundball pitcher with great control along with his amazing curveball and change up, he should be able to make it to the majors. His ceiling looks to be a #3 starter with his floor in long relief. Currently, he projects to be a #5 starter and may remind some of Bronson Arroyo of the Cincinnati Reds.

Down on the Farm...

Juan Palmeiro
Rochester Retards

Score - 58
Fastball Velocity - 60
Fastball Movement - 70
Control - 50
Command - 55
Slider - 55
Curveball - 60
Change Up - 55
Split FB - 20

Juan was signed two seasons ago from the Virgin Islands to a Major League contract with a $5.0M signing bonus. His 4-Seam Fastball will blow hitters away. He currently has been clocked 91 to 94 MPH. As he continues to mature, he may add a MPH or two to that speed. His deceptive movement on the fastball is what is so devastating. It moves in on right-handed batters and away on left-handed batters. He doesn't have a problem getting same-handed batters out, but he does struggle some with right-handed batters. He also needs to work on his control and could really dump his Split Fastball. Juan has the ceiling of a #1 starter with the floor of a #4 starter. Currently, he looks like he might fit in as a nice #3 starter in Rochester's future rotation.

Down on the Farm...

Ernesto Ozuna
Syracuse Crunch

Score - 59
Fastball Velocity - 75
Fastball Movement - 55
Control - 65
Command - 60
Slider - 55
Change Up - 45

Ernesto may be used in long relief or as a closer. His control is very good, and his sinker is consistently clocked at 97 to 100 MPH even deep into games. If his stamina can increase enough, he might become a SP.

Down on the Farm...

Keith Williamson
Colorado Springs Night Watchmen

Score - 58
Hitting - 55
Power - 75
Plate Discipline - 55
Running - 55
Fielding - 55
Range - 60
Arm Strength - 55
Arm Accuracy - 55

Keith is listed as a SS, but he will have to move to 3B. His fielding can't handle the SS position. His power, which is plus plus, will be an asset at the hot corner. He should steal 10 to 15 bases a year. He hit one home run so far it is said they are still running the tape measure out to measure it.

Down on the Farm...

Wolf Dodd
Nashville Nalas

Score - 55
Hitting - 60
Power - 55
Plate Discipline - 60
Running - 60
Fielding - 55
Range - 65
Arm Strength - 40
Arm Accuracy - 45

Wolf should be able to stay at 2B. He will commit a few more errors there, but his bat will play real well at 2B. He should steal 20 bases a year with his speed, but he will be caught on 50% of his chances due to his baserunning ability.

Down on the Farm...

Buddy Berry
New York Damage Controllers

Score - 68
Hitting - 65
Power - 55
Plate Discipline - 75
Running - 75
Fielding - 70
Range - 70
Arm Strength - 60
Arm Accuracy - 75

Buddy could play SS and with his hitting tool should produce very well there. If his defense doesn't improve enough, his hit tool will still play well at 3B. He definitely looks to be a 30/30 player in the future.

Down on the Farm...

Ernest Bailey
Los Angeles Regulators

Score - 58
Hitting - 55
Power - 50
Plate Discipline - 65
Running - 55
Fielding - 60
Range - 55
Arm Strength - 65
Arm Accuracy - 60

Ernest is listed as a SS, but he will need to move to the hot corner. He doesn't have the range to play SS. His bat is not well suited for 3B. He can hit lefties well and should make good contact. He knows how to take a walk and should be able to steal 12 to 20 bases a season. If he moves to 3B, his fielding should help him win gold gloves.

Down on the Farm...

I will be taking a look at some of the players in the minor leagues. Using the 20-80 scale that scouts use, I will rate each player and give an overall score. First up,

Vinny Hill
New York Damage Controllers

Score - 59
Hitting - 70
Power - 70
Plate Discipline - 75
Running - 40
Fielding - 50
Range - 50
Arm Strength - 65
Arm Accuracy - 50

Vinny is ready for the big show now. He can play in RF but may be more suited to 1B in the future. If he stays in the corner outfield, his value goes down due to his glove. If he moves to 1B, his value will increase since his bat can carry the position. His durability hurts his overall value.

Time to Make Adjustments

Let’s take a look at what everyone loves to spend money on…

Getting on base of course! What, you thought I’d let you be seduced by the long ball? Please. On Base Percentage is what makes the offense tick in the game of baseball. If you can’t get on base, you can’t score runs. Hitting home runs and extra-base hits look good in the stat column but if you strike out or get put out more than you hit those extra-base hits, you’re harming your team more than help them. Heck, just look at Josh Hamilton in the MLB. Dude hits amazing homeruns but strikes out like Casey.

What we will look into in this article a couple statistics looking at getting on base and how it’s done. I’m not going to separate AL and NL but we will take a gander at 10 of the top guys in the entire league (remember data was pulled after the 40 game mark).

Top 10 OBP Players (min. 50 AB and min. 15 H):

1.      Howard Atkins (SYR/DH) – Atkins has a phenomenal .494 OBP for the Crush this season. Atkins has managed this from the DH spot and, while we don’t need to linger on the antiquated AVG statistic, he is hitting .430 for the year.

2.     Andre Fleming (KC/DH) – Fleming is also having a fantastic year from the DH spot getting on base at a great .487 clip. Fleming’s stats are boosted by missing 6 days on the DL early in the year.

3.     Brian Lowrie (CSP/3B-SS) – The young Lowrie (25 years old) is right behind his elders with a .485 OBP for the year.

4.     Matt Jaha (BOS/DH) – Jaha enters the fourth spot after Alan Wilson (CHA) was removed due to his long-term injury. Jaha has been the everyday, and I mean EVERYday, DH for the Pilgrims and has worked his way on base to the tune of a .463 OBP.

5.    Peter Cheng (KC/1B-DH) – Cheng has split time at first and as the designated hitter throughout the Hotsteppers season. One of the better pure hitters in the league (evidenced by his $10.8 million contract?), Cheng has reached base with an OBP of .460 after 40 games.

6.    John Pong (DOV/1B) – L’isiana boy, John Pong has helped Delaware’s Team with a .459 OBP this season. Pong has been doing this for a while, hitting over .410 in OBP the last five seasons.

7.     Rafael Hernandez (FAR/RF) – The mighty Wood Chippers are spurred along by Hernandez’s 27 singles and his .447 OBP.

7.     Jim Hawpe (MON/2B) – Hawpe’s .447 OBP is buoyed by his 21 double this season.

9.   Kazuhiro Kuroda (ROC/C) – Kuroda is an enigma being Japanese but raised in Vietnam but his play for Rochester has been anything but puzzling. Kuroda has helped Rochester with his .446 OBP.

10. Evan Brooks (NO/C) – Brooks just barely became eligible for this list and has the least amount of AB (56) compared to the rest of the Top 10 and is the only player on this list who is not an everyday starter for their team. However, maybe the Zephyrs should look for Brooks to be a starter with his .439 OBP.

So what does the On-Base Percentage tell us? These are the hitters that can reach base at least 44% of the time. Look at Howard Atkins who gets on base almost 50% of the time! Those players that can get on base a lot should help managers set the top of their lineup. Like I said to start off the article, hitting homeruns and extra base hits is nice, but getting on base helps put runs on the board as well. But we should go further than just OBP.

·         Howard Atkins: .494 OBP / .38 HITR

·         Andre Fleming: .487 OBP / .37 HITR

·         Brian Lowrie: .485 OBP / .32 HITR

·         Matt Jaha:  .463 OBP / .32 HITR

·         Peter Cheng: .460 OBP / .29 HITR

·         John Pong: .459 OBP / .27 HITR

·         Rafael Hernandez: .447 OBP / .34 HITR

·         Jim Hawpe: .447 OBP / .29 HITR

·         Kazuhiro Kuroda: .446 OBP / .23 HITR

·         Evan Brooks: .439 OBP / .29 HITR

 The above list shows each of the Top 10 OBP players along with their HITR stat: Hit Rate. This is a measurement of Hits per Plate Appearance and helps us get a better understanding of the ratio of hits to other aspects of a player’s offensive statistics. It’s not a perfect correlation but knowing that Hernandez records a Hit 34% of his plate appearances helps to show that the majority of his .447 OBP are from Hits and not from walks, HBP or Sac Flies. Conversely, Kuroda’s .446 OBP and .23 HITR shows a man that knows how to get on-base through other means rather than hitting.

 

At the 80 game mark we’ll take a look at the Top 10 OBP along with their corresponding HITR statistic but we’ll also go into one of the most telling statistics in baseball: wOBA.

How Many Strikeouts Do You Have?

For the first installment of this series we’ll focus on several statistical categories for pitchers in Pine Tar. This should be short and sweet, but hopefully enlightening. My hope is that everyone can gain a better understanding of the top players in our league. Just remember all stats are taken after Game 40.

The first category we will look at is SO/9, this stat shows us what pitcher has the best Strikeout Rate per 9 innings (duh). Why do we look at SO/9 though? Well, for one thing, the “K” is pitching’s homerun, all the chicks dig the K. More importantly, the SO/9 statistic shows us which pitcher is making people miss; hence, keeping runners off base and helping their team win. To make this statistic work, I choose the 10 top starters and 10 top relievers (both middle relief and closers) based on the number of Innings Pitched, Games Started, Games Appeared and Save Opportunities.

Top SO/9 Starting Pitchers:

1.     Alex Martis (HOU/RHP) – Martis has a SO/9 of 10.5 in 8 Games. However, Martis is plagued by short starts and a porous bullpen managing a record of 2-1 with a 3.35 ERA.

2.    Rock Randall (STL/RHP) – Randall is the Arch Angels’ young flamethrower who has a SO/9 of 10.2 in 8 Games. Randall also sports a sweet 2.45 ERA.

3.    Sean Shipley (STL/LHP) – Shipley is the Arch Angels’ other young stud pitcher who sports a 10.1 SO/9 with 8 Games Started. Shipley is looking at a 4-1 record with a 2.56 ERA.

4.    Orlando Cruz (DUR/RHP) – Cruz has a SO/9 of 9.9 in 8 Games with the Doormats. Cruz has a strong supporting cast for his starts, he has a flat 81 pitches thrown per start with 40 IP but holds a record of 4-1.

5.    Miguel Rivera (SEA/RHP) – Rivera is the Strikers 5^th starter AND has the league’s 5^th best SO/9 at 9.8. However, Rivera has control issues as evidenced by his 2-2 record and an ERA of 5.19.

6.    Hipolito Owen (BOS/RHP) – Owen has anchored the Pilgrims staff all season and holds a SO/9 of 9.7. Owen has only started 7 games and last around 5 innings each outing.

7.    Enrique Santiago (DOV/RHP) – Santiago has a SO/9 of 9.5 in 8 games.

8.    Vinny Napoli (STL/LHP) – Napoli, the Arch Angels’ 5^th starter, has a SO/9 of 9.1, basically a strikeout per inning pitched. Napoli has stamina issues only going 39.2 innings in 8 starts this year.

9.    Sammy Johnson (DOV/LHP) – Johnson has a SO/9 of 8.9 in 8 games and is the only pitching in this Top 10 list to have a losing record at 3-4. However, Johnson also has the most decisions in this list.

10. Bill Crabtree (VC/RHP) – Crabtree enters the Top 10 only because of Larry Brow’s (Nashville Nalas) DL status. Crabtree has a SO/9 of 8.6 (Brow sits at 8.8).

Top SO/9 Relief Pitchers (min 10 games or min 5 SVO):

1.    Tom Leonard (MON/LHP) – The Leaf Blowers’ pure closer, Leonard has 6 Saves on the season with 8 SVO and sports an outstanding 12.5 SO/9. Leonard is helped by only pitching 8.2 innings.

2.    Apollo Fletcher (NAS/LHP) – The Nalas’ closer, Fletcher has appeared in 13 games with 11 SVO and produced a 11.7 SO/9.

3.    Stretch Teixeira (PHI/RHP) – Stretch is listed as the MoneyMakers Long Reliever but with a SO/9 of 11.6 a role change may be needed.

4.    Jesus Amezaga (NO/LHP) – Amezaga has appeared in 14 games as the Zephyrs Closer but has recorded a Save in each of his 7 opportunities, no doubt spurred by his 11.3 SO/9.

5.    Chico Guerrero (STL/RHP) – Guerrero is the first Setup pitching on the list and represents the Arch Angels’ fourth addition to these top K-men. With a SO/9 of 10.5 in 19.2 IP, Guerrero has been the go-to for St. Louis when they need a bridge to help them to reach the later innings and Guerrero’s 25 appearances proves his worth.

6.    Brendan Taylor (IA/RHP) – Taylor has a respectable 9.9 SO/9 for the Hawkeyes appearing in 24 games with a record of 3-1, 5 SV (5 SVO), truly one of the most dependable relievers in the game.

7.    Dennis Coleman (IA/LHP) – The other side of the Hawkeyes coin is Coleman whose relief work has earned him 9.7 SO/9 in 23 games. Coleman’s 0-2 and 1 BSV may be a sign of instability.

8.    Tony Moreno (HOU/RHP) – Moreno has a SO/9 of 9.6 with appearances as the Roughnecks’ Long Reliever in 13 games this season.

8.    Jamie Saito (STL/RHP) – One more pitcher from St. Louis, Saito has appeared in 17 games in Long Relief and put up 9.6 SO/9.

10. Esteban Avila (CHA/LHP) – Avila has 20 appearances for the Knights and a 9.5 SO/9.

 You might still be saying, whoopty-doo, what does it all mean? When you look at these rates: 12.5 or 8.6; you should be thinking to yourself, “that’s around a strikeout per inning/that’s 1 batter I don’t have to worry about.” It helps you plan and move your pitchers around on the rotation or possible add to a Closer’s pitch count (Tom Leonard). To go deeper let’s take four of the above pitchers, Alex Martis and Rock Randall as well as Tom Leonard and Apollo Fletcher.

 These four represent the top of their roles. But with high SO/9, what happens when they don’t get the K? For this we’ll look at their BABIP (Batted Average of Balls In Play).

 

·         Martis – 10.5 SO/9 – .259 BABIP

·         Randall – 10.2 SO/9 - .283 BABIP

·         Leonard – 12.5 SO/9 - .116 BABIP

·         Fletcher – 11.7 SO/9 - .507 BABIP

 Well, it was looking good until Fletcher. The first three pitchers all have very respectable BABIPs (.300 is considered league average in the MLB). Leonard is by far the best Closer in the game with a .116 BABIP. That means 89% of the balls hit into play will not result in a Hit.

 

But, the Grim Reaper known as Apollo Fletcher shows that he better strike the batter out or more than likely that batter is getting a hit.

We’ve just scratched the surface and it’s getting late. I’ll try to get a batter statistical breakdown sometime this week. It’s amazing the amount of time it takes to look at all of the players in our league. Stay Frosty!

Power Rankings

The Power Rankings are based on my own formula. It includes the teams' own record, Strength of Schedule (SOS) and Opponents SOS. The Runs Scored (RS) and Runs Allowed (RA) for each team are used to calculate an Expected Wins (xW) and Expected Losses (xL). Finally, the Hitting (HIT), Pitching (PIT) and Defense (DEF) of each team is ranked.

Overall SOS plays a big part in the rankings which is why some teams may have fewer wins yet be ranked higher than someone with more wins. If you have any questions, please let me know.

I will work on getting these out once a week. I will also be working on making the table look better. If you have any suggestions for the table, please let me know.

RANK	FRANCHISE	W	L	WIN%	RS	RA	xW	xL	SOS	HIT	PIT	DEF
1	Durham Doormats	28	14	0.667	264	211	25	17	3	2	19	29
2	Boston Pilgrims	27	15	0.643	265	158	30	12	1	1	3	5
3	St. Louis Arch Angels	28	14	0.667	214	163	26	16	2	11	5	27
4	Dover Dinklebergs	26	16	0.619	239	225	22	20	6	6	26	6
5	San Juan Pollos Hermanos	21	21	0.500	207	231	19	23	9	13	29	31
6	Syracuse Crunch	24	18	0.571	261	219	24	18	5	3	22	24
7	New York Damage Controllers	20	22	0.476	240	259	20	22	7	5	30	30
8	Vancouver Canucks	23	19	0.548	192	184	22	20	4	19	11	3
9	Rochester Retards	23	19	0.548	225	207	23	19	8	9	17	20
10	Iowa City Hawkeyes	27	15	0.643	205	153	26	16	13	14	2	8
11	Louisville ARF ARF ARF ARFs	24	18	0.571	196	191	21	21	18	17	14	18
12	Kansas City Hotsteppers	18	24	0.429	208	214	20	22	12	12	20	16
13	New Orleans Zephyrs	23	19	0.548	235	227	22	20	10	7	28	12
14	Houston Roughnecks	21	21	0.500	202	174	24	18	22	15	8	13
15	Colorado Springs Night Watchmen	25	17	0.595	247	220	23	19	21	4	24	26
16	Charlotte Knights	23	19	0.548	192	168	24	18	14	18	7	7
17	Montreal Leaf Blowers	23	19	0.548	200	181	23	19	20	16	10	2
18	Tampa Bay Thunder	21	21	0.500	231	219	22	20	11	8	23	25
19	Fargo Wood Chippers	24	18	0.571	218	177	25	17	15	10	9	4
20	Oklahoma City Prairie Dogs	24	18	0.571	166	148	23	19	16	27	1	15
21	Jackson Juggernauts	19	23	0.452	174	161	22	20	28	24	4	11
22	Nashville Nalas	17	25	0.405	186	227	17	25	23	22	27	21
23	Pittsburgh Ironmen	12	30	0.286	188	271	14	28	19	21	31	32
24	Los Angeles Regulators	15	27	0.357	155	201	16	26	17	31	16	14
25	Jacksonville Juice	19	23	0.452	159	189	18	24	24	29	13	23
26	Seattle Strikers	21	21	0.500	189	165	24	18	25	20	6	17
27	Madison Masterblastas	19	23	0.452	174	218	17	25	27	25	21	1
28	Cincinnati Firestorm	17	25	0.405	157	208	16	26	30	30	18	9
29	Washington D.C. Justices	17	25	0.405	169	197	18	24	29	26	15	28
30	Tucson Sidewinders	10	32	0.238	185	279	13	29	26	23	32	22
31	Albuquerque Komodo Dragons	16	26	0.381	160	225	15	27	32	28	25	10
32	Philadelphia Moneymakers	17	25	0.405	152	185	17	25	31	32	12	19

Arfy's Ramblings......Draft Edition

• I wonder what it feels like to play in the NL EAST.  The Jacksonville Juice are in first place with a 18-23 record.  That's messed up!

• Box Scores you have to check out:

Cincinnati at Louisville   4/17 pm2
New York at Los Angeles 4/17 pm2 
Boston at Kansas City 4/17 pm
Rochester at Tucson 4/17 pm
Houston at Fargo 4/17 pm
Washington at Seattle 4/16 pm
Colorado Springs at Charlotte 4/15 am
Montreal at Houston 4/14 pm2

• How do you guys like the box score thingie above?  Send me a trade chat and let me know if you take the time to click on the links or should I just skip the box scores?
• I thought it would be fun with the draft coming up to take a long back at previous #1 draft picks and see what they are up to:

Season POS Player          Drafted by        Present team
22        P Gerald Foster    NY          NY in AA 8 starts, 3-1, 2.08 ERA
21       RF JA Stanley       Far           Far in ML  .227, 11hr, 35 rbi
20      RF Gus Justice        NY         NY in ML .316 ba, .426 OBP  ROY candidate?
19       RP Apollo Fletcher   Det         Nash  11inn, 8.18 ERA has had a couple decent seasons with Nashville with ERA's in the high 3's.
18       LF Jojo Frandsen  Van          Sea  .284 BA 8 hrs
17      3B  John Satou        Lou        OKC  .318 BA this season.  Typically good for 20 hr's.
16      SP  Sticky Farquahar   Iowa   Iowa  Good for 200+ inn, 15-17 wins and ERA's in the 2's.
15     SP  Rock Randall       Stl         Stl       Good for 14 wins and ERA's in the 3's.  Probably would be better if he was in the NL.

• Displacednyr comes out of nowhere and turns Syracuse around.  They only won 78 games last season, but this season are already 7 games over .500 and leading the league in BA and OBP.
• Louisville leads the league in Pinch hit with 19.  Maybe we are onto something as they aren't appearing strong in any other categories yet are still 7 games over .500.
• Oklahoma City leads the majors in ERA with 3.12.  A vast improvement over last seasons 4.28 ERA.  They are also 5 games over .500, so hopefully they have turned the corner.
• Vancouver pitching staff fares better against lefties than any other team holding them to a .221 BA
• Fargo pitching staff fares better against righties, holding them to a .225 BA
• Surprising fact.  The Durham Doormats who are 13 games over .500 have the 3rd fewest amount of Quality Starts.  What is their secret?
• Least amount of Inherited runners scored?   Colorado Springs and Oklahoma City.
• My personal favorite stat to look at.  Defensive Shortstops.  Boston SS Yusmeiro Julio  has 12 plus plays and only 2 errors this season.  How does he compare to your SS?
• We have a new leader in BA.  Syracuse DH Howard Atkins is hitting .430 in 158 AB's.  There also 2 other players hitting over .400 this season
• New Orleans RF Sam Slotnick is leading the majors in homers with 20.  Not surprising since this dude hit 62 homers a few seasons back.
• Los Angeles CF Del Broome is going for the Vince Coleman award this season as he has 21 sb's and has only been caught twice.
• Retard pitcher John McNamara leads the league in wins this season with 8.  lol
• So apparently 1B usually have the most Double Plays.  Kansas City SS Yorvit Ortiz leads the non- firstbasemen in Double Plays.
• Alb 3B Darryl Bonham is on a tear as of late hitting 15 for his last 39.  Bringing his season average up to .331.