Time to Make Adjustments

Let’s take a look at what everyone loves to spend money on…

Getting on base of course! What, you thought I’d let you be seduced by the long ball? Please. On Base Percentage is what makes the offense tick in the game of baseball. If you can’t get on base, you can’t score runs. Hitting home runs and extra-base hits look good in the stat column but if you strike out or get put out more than you hit those extra-base hits, you’re harming your team more than help them. Heck, just look at Josh Hamilton in the MLB. Dude hits amazing homeruns but strikes out like Casey.

What we will look into in this article a couple statistics looking at getting on base and how it’s done. I’m not going to separate AL and NL but we will take a gander at 10 of the top guys in the entire league (remember data was pulled after the 40 game mark).

Top 10 OBP Players (min. 50 AB and min. 15 H):

1.      Howard Atkins (SYR/DH) – Atkins has a phenomenal .494 OBP for the Crush this season. Atkins has managed this from the DH spot and, while we don’t need to linger on the antiquated AVG statistic, he is hitting .430 for the year.

2.     Andre Fleming (KC/DH) – Fleming is also having a fantastic year from the DH spot getting on base at a great .487 clip. Fleming’s stats are boosted by missing 6 days on the DL early in the year.

3.     Brian Lowrie (CSP/3B-SS) – The young Lowrie (25 years old) is right behind his elders with a .485 OBP for the year.

4.     Matt Jaha (BOS/DH) – Jaha enters the fourth spot after Alan Wilson (CHA) was removed due to his long-term injury. Jaha has been the everyday, and I mean EVERYday, DH for the Pilgrims and has worked his way on base to the tune of a .463 OBP.

5.    Peter Cheng (KC/1B-DH) – Cheng has split time at first and as the designated hitter throughout the Hotsteppers season. One of the better pure hitters in the league (evidenced by his $10.8 million contract?), Cheng has reached base with an OBP of .460 after 40 games.

6.    John Pong (DOV/1B) – L’isiana boy, John Pong has helped Delaware’s Team with a .459 OBP this season. Pong has been doing this for a while, hitting over .410 in OBP the last five seasons.

7.     Rafael Hernandez (FAR/RF) – The mighty Wood Chippers are spurred along by Hernandez’s 27 singles and his .447 OBP.

7.     Jim Hawpe (MON/2B) – Hawpe’s .447 OBP is buoyed by his 21 double this season.

9.   Kazuhiro Kuroda (ROC/C) – Kuroda is an enigma being Japanese but raised in Vietnam but his play for Rochester has been anything but puzzling. Kuroda has helped Rochester with his .446 OBP.

10. Evan Brooks (NO/C) – Brooks just barely became eligible for this list and has the least amount of AB (56) compared to the rest of the Top 10 and is the only player on this list who is not an everyday starter for their team. However, maybe the Zephyrs should look for Brooks to be a starter with his .439 OBP.

So what does the On-Base Percentage tell us? These are the hitters that can reach base at least 44% of the time. Look at Howard Atkins who gets on base almost 50% of the time! Those players that can get on base a lot should help managers set the top of their lineup. Like I said to start off the article, hitting homeruns and extra base hits is nice, but getting on base helps put runs on the board as well. But we should go further than just OBP.

·         Howard Atkins: .494 OBP / .38 HITR

·         Andre Fleming: .487 OBP / .37 HITR

·         Brian Lowrie: .485 OBP / .32 HITR

·         Matt Jaha:  .463 OBP / .32 HITR

·         Peter Cheng: .460 OBP / .29 HITR

·         John Pong: .459 OBP / .27 HITR

·         Rafael Hernandez: .447 OBP / .34 HITR

·         Jim Hawpe: .447 OBP / .29 HITR

·         Kazuhiro Kuroda: .446 OBP / .23 HITR

·         Evan Brooks: .439 OBP / .29 HITR

 The above list shows each of the Top 10 OBP players along with their HITR stat: Hit Rate. This is a measurement of Hits per Plate Appearance and helps us get a better understanding of the ratio of hits to other aspects of a player’s offensive statistics. It’s not a perfect correlation but knowing that Hernandez records a Hit 34% of his plate appearances helps to show that the majority of his .447 OBP are from Hits and not from walks, HBP or Sac Flies. Conversely, Kuroda’s .446 OBP and .23 HITR shows a man that knows how to get on-base through other means rather than hitting.

 

At the 80 game mark we’ll take a look at the Top 10 OBP along with their corresponding HITR statistic but we’ll also go into one of the most telling statistics in baseball: wOBA.

How Many Strikeouts Do You Have?

For the first installment of this series we’ll focus on several statistical categories for pitchers in Pine Tar. This should be short and sweet, but hopefully enlightening. My hope is that everyone can gain a better understanding of the top players in our league. Just remember all stats are taken after Game 40.

The first category we will look at is SO/9, this stat shows us what pitcher has the best Strikeout Rate per 9 innings (duh). Why do we look at SO/9 though? Well, for one thing, the “K” is pitching’s homerun, all the chicks dig the K. More importantly, the SO/9 statistic shows us which pitcher is making people miss; hence, keeping runners off base and helping their team win. To make this statistic work, I choose the 10 top starters and 10 top relievers (both middle relief and closers) based on the number of Innings Pitched, Games Started, Games Appeared and Save Opportunities.

Top SO/9 Starting Pitchers:

1.     Alex Martis (HOU/RHP) – Martis has a SO/9 of 10.5 in 8 Games. However, Martis is plagued by short starts and a porous bullpen managing a record of 2-1 with a 3.35 ERA.

2.    Rock Randall (STL/RHP) – Randall is the Arch Angels’ young flamethrower who has a SO/9 of 10.2 in 8 Games. Randall also sports a sweet 2.45 ERA.

3.    Sean Shipley (STL/LHP) – Shipley is the Arch Angels’ other young stud pitcher who sports a 10.1 SO/9 with 8 Games Started. Shipley is looking at a 4-1 record with a 2.56 ERA.

4.    Orlando Cruz (DUR/RHP) – Cruz has a SO/9 of 9.9 in 8 Games with the Doormats. Cruz has a strong supporting cast for his starts, he has a flat 81 pitches thrown per start with 40 IP but holds a record of 4-1.

5.    Miguel Rivera (SEA/RHP) – Rivera is the Strikers 5^th starter AND has the league’s 5^th best SO/9 at 9.8. However, Rivera has control issues as evidenced by his 2-2 record and an ERA of 5.19.

6.    Hipolito Owen (BOS/RHP) – Owen has anchored the Pilgrims staff all season and holds a SO/9 of 9.7. Owen has only started 7 games and last around 5 innings each outing.

7.    Enrique Santiago (DOV/RHP) – Santiago has a SO/9 of 9.5 in 8 games.

8.    Vinny Napoli (STL/LHP) – Napoli, the Arch Angels’ 5^th starter, has a SO/9 of 9.1, basically a strikeout per inning pitched. Napoli has stamina issues only going 39.2 innings in 8 starts this year.

9.    Sammy Johnson (DOV/LHP) – Johnson has a SO/9 of 8.9 in 8 games and is the only pitching in this Top 10 list to have a losing record at 3-4. However, Johnson also has the most decisions in this list.

10. Bill Crabtree (VC/RHP) – Crabtree enters the Top 10 only because of Larry Brow’s (Nashville Nalas) DL status. Crabtree has a SO/9 of 8.6 (Brow sits at 8.8).

Top SO/9 Relief Pitchers (min 10 games or min 5 SVO):

1.    Tom Leonard (MON/LHP) – The Leaf Blowers’ pure closer, Leonard has 6 Saves on the season with 8 SVO and sports an outstanding 12.5 SO/9. Leonard is helped by only pitching 8.2 innings.

2.    Apollo Fletcher (NAS/LHP) – The Nalas’ closer, Fletcher has appeared in 13 games with 11 SVO and produced a 11.7 SO/9.

3.    Stretch Teixeira (PHI/RHP) – Stretch is listed as the MoneyMakers Long Reliever but with a SO/9 of 11.6 a role change may be needed.

4.    Jesus Amezaga (NO/LHP) – Amezaga has appeared in 14 games as the Zephyrs Closer but has recorded a Save in each of his 7 opportunities, no doubt spurred by his 11.3 SO/9.

5.    Chico Guerrero (STL/RHP) – Guerrero is the first Setup pitching on the list and represents the Arch Angels’ fourth addition to these top K-men. With a SO/9 of 10.5 in 19.2 IP, Guerrero has been the go-to for St. Louis when they need a bridge to help them to reach the later innings and Guerrero’s 25 appearances proves his worth.

6.    Brendan Taylor (IA/RHP) – Taylor has a respectable 9.9 SO/9 for the Hawkeyes appearing in 24 games with a record of 3-1, 5 SV (5 SVO), truly one of the most dependable relievers in the game.

7.    Dennis Coleman (IA/LHP) – The other side of the Hawkeyes coin is Coleman whose relief work has earned him 9.7 SO/9 in 23 games. Coleman’s 0-2 and 1 BSV may be a sign of instability.

8.    Tony Moreno (HOU/RHP) – Moreno has a SO/9 of 9.6 with appearances as the Roughnecks’ Long Reliever in 13 games this season.

8.    Jamie Saito (STL/RHP) – One more pitcher from St. Louis, Saito has appeared in 17 games in Long Relief and put up 9.6 SO/9.

10. Esteban Avila (CHA/LHP) – Avila has 20 appearances for the Knights and a 9.5 SO/9.

 You might still be saying, whoopty-doo, what does it all mean? When you look at these rates: 12.5 or 8.6; you should be thinking to yourself, “that’s around a strikeout per inning/that’s 1 batter I don’t have to worry about.” It helps you plan and move your pitchers around on the rotation or possible add to a Closer’s pitch count (Tom Leonard). To go deeper let’s take four of the above pitchers, Alex Martis and Rock Randall as well as Tom Leonard and Apollo Fletcher.

 These four represent the top of their roles. But with high SO/9, what happens when they don’t get the K? For this we’ll look at their BABIP (Batted Average of Balls In Play).

 

·         Martis – 10.5 SO/9 – .259 BABIP

·         Randall – 10.2 SO/9 - .283 BABIP

·         Leonard – 12.5 SO/9 - .116 BABIP

·         Fletcher – 11.7 SO/9 - .507 BABIP

 Well, it was looking good until Fletcher. The first three pitchers all have very respectable BABIPs (.300 is considered league average in the MLB). Leonard is by far the best Closer in the game with a .116 BABIP. That means 89% of the balls hit into play will not result in a Hit.

 

But, the Grim Reaper known as Apollo Fletcher shows that he better strike the batter out or more than likely that batter is getting a hit.

We’ve just scratched the surface and it’s getting late. I’ll try to get a batter statistical breakdown sometime this week. It’s amazing the amount of time it takes to look at all of the players in our league. Stay Frosty!

Power Rankings

The Power Rankings are based on my own formula. It includes the teams' own record, Strength of Schedule (SOS) and Opponents SOS. The Runs Scored (RS) and Runs Allowed (RA) for each team are used to calculate an Expected Wins (xW) and Expected Losses (xL). Finally, the Hitting (HIT), Pitching (PIT) and Defense (DEF) of each team is ranked.

Overall SOS plays a big part in the rankings which is why some teams may have fewer wins yet be ranked higher than someone with more wins. If you have any questions, please let me know.

I will work on getting these out once a week. I will also be working on making the table look better. If you have any suggestions for the table, please let me know.

RANK	FRANCHISE	W	L	WIN%	RS	RA	xW	xL	SOS	HIT	PIT	DEF
1	Durham Doormats	28	14	0.667	264	211	25	17	3	2	19	29
2	Boston Pilgrims	27	15	0.643	265	158	30	12	1	1	3	5
3	St. Louis Arch Angels	28	14	0.667	214	163	26	16	2	11	5	27
4	Dover Dinklebergs	26	16	0.619	239	225	22	20	6	6	26	6
5	San Juan Pollos Hermanos	21	21	0.500	207	231	19	23	9	13	29	31
6	Syracuse Crunch	24	18	0.571	261	219	24	18	5	3	22	24
7	New York Damage Controllers	20	22	0.476	240	259	20	22	7	5	30	30
8	Vancouver Canucks	23	19	0.548	192	184	22	20	4	19	11	3
9	Rochester Retards	23	19	0.548	225	207	23	19	8	9	17	20
10	Iowa City Hawkeyes	27	15	0.643	205	153	26	16	13	14	2	8
11	Louisville ARF ARF ARF ARFs	24	18	0.571	196	191	21	21	18	17	14	18
12	Kansas City Hotsteppers	18	24	0.429	208	214	20	22	12	12	20	16
13	New Orleans Zephyrs	23	19	0.548	235	227	22	20	10	7	28	12
14	Houston Roughnecks	21	21	0.500	202	174	24	18	22	15	8	13
15	Colorado Springs Night Watchmen	25	17	0.595	247	220	23	19	21	4	24	26
16	Charlotte Knights	23	19	0.548	192	168	24	18	14	18	7	7
17	Montreal Leaf Blowers	23	19	0.548	200	181	23	19	20	16	10	2
18	Tampa Bay Thunder	21	21	0.500	231	219	22	20	11	8	23	25
19	Fargo Wood Chippers	24	18	0.571	218	177	25	17	15	10	9	4
20	Oklahoma City Prairie Dogs	24	18	0.571	166	148	23	19	16	27	1	15
21	Jackson Juggernauts	19	23	0.452	174	161	22	20	28	24	4	11
22	Nashville Nalas	17	25	0.405	186	227	17	25	23	22	27	21
23	Pittsburgh Ironmen	12	30	0.286	188	271	14	28	19	21	31	32
24	Los Angeles Regulators	15	27	0.357	155	201	16	26	17	31	16	14
25	Jacksonville Juice	19	23	0.452	159	189	18	24	24	29	13	23
26	Seattle Strikers	21	21	0.500	189	165	24	18	25	20	6	17
27	Madison Masterblastas	19	23	0.452	174	218	17	25	27	25	21	1
28	Cincinnati Firestorm	17	25	0.405	157	208	16	26	30	30	18	9
29	Washington D.C. Justices	17	25	0.405	169	197	18	24	29	26	15	28
30	Tucson Sidewinders	10	32	0.238	185	279	13	29	26	23	32	22
31	Albuquerque Komodo Dragons	16	26	0.381	160	225	15	27	32	28	25	10
32	Philadelphia Moneymakers	17	25	0.405	152	185	17	25	31	32	12	19

Arfy's Ramblings......Draft Edition

• I wonder what it feels like to play in the NL EAST.  The Jacksonville Juice are in first place with a 18-23 record.  That's messed up!

• Box Scores you have to check out:

Cincinnati at Louisville   4/17 pm2
New York at Los Angeles 4/17 pm2 
Boston at Kansas City 4/17 pm
Rochester at Tucson 4/17 pm
Houston at Fargo 4/17 pm
Washington at Seattle 4/16 pm
Colorado Springs at Charlotte 4/15 am
Montreal at Houston 4/14 pm2

• How do you guys like the box score thingie above?  Send me a trade chat and let me know if you take the time to click on the links or should I just skip the box scores?
• I thought it would be fun with the draft coming up to take a long back at previous #1 draft picks and see what they are up to:

Season POS Player          Drafted by        Present team
22        P Gerald Foster    NY          NY in AA 8 starts, 3-1, 2.08 ERA
21       RF JA Stanley       Far           Far in ML  .227, 11hr, 35 rbi
20      RF Gus Justice        NY         NY in ML .316 ba, .426 OBP  ROY candidate?
19       RP Apollo Fletcher   Det         Nash  11inn, 8.18 ERA has had a couple decent seasons with Nashville with ERA's in the high 3's.
18       LF Jojo Frandsen  Van          Sea  .284 BA 8 hrs
17      3B  John Satou        Lou        OKC  .318 BA this season.  Typically good for 20 hr's.
16      SP  Sticky Farquahar   Iowa   Iowa  Good for 200+ inn, 15-17 wins and ERA's in the 2's.
15     SP  Rock Randall       Stl         Stl       Good for 14 wins and ERA's in the 3's.  Probably would be better if he was in the NL.

• Displacednyr comes out of nowhere and turns Syracuse around.  They only won 78 games last season, but this season are already 7 games over .500 and leading the league in BA and OBP.
• Louisville leads the league in Pinch hit with 19.  Maybe we are onto something as they aren't appearing strong in any other categories yet are still 7 games over .500.
• Oklahoma City leads the majors in ERA with 3.12.  A vast improvement over last seasons 4.28 ERA.  They are also 5 games over .500, so hopefully they have turned the corner.
• Vancouver pitching staff fares better against lefties than any other team holding them to a .221 BA
• Fargo pitching staff fares better against righties, holding them to a .225 BA
• Surprising fact.  The Durham Doormats who are 13 games over .500 have the 3rd fewest amount of Quality Starts.  What is their secret?
• Least amount of Inherited runners scored?   Colorado Springs and Oklahoma City.
• My personal favorite stat to look at.  Defensive Shortstops.  Boston SS Yusmeiro Julio  has 12 plus plays and only 2 errors this season.  How does he compare to your SS?
• We have a new leader in BA.  Syracuse DH Howard Atkins is hitting .430 in 158 AB's.  There also 2 other players hitting over .400 this season
• New Orleans RF Sam Slotnick is leading the majors in homers with 20.  Not surprising since this dude hit 62 homers a few seasons back.
• Los Angeles CF Del Broome is going for the Vince Coleman award this season as he has 21 sb's and has only been caught twice.
• Retard pitcher John McNamara leads the league in wins this season with 8.  lol
• So apparently 1B usually have the most Double Plays.  Kansas City SS Yorvit Ortiz leads the non- firstbasemen in Double Plays.
• Alb 3B Darryl Bonham is on a tear as of late hitting 15 for his last 39.  Bringing his season average up to .331.