Monday, November 30, 2009

Season 10 outlook: AL West

Los Angeles War Rhymers

The strength of this team has been its pitching for several years now, and the Rhymers (formerly the St. Louis Start of Something) finished in the top 3 in ERA last year yet again. So what was management's plan to secure a 6th straight division title for the franchise? Err... clean out its pitching rotation. Rabbit Williams, Richard Giovanola, Ryan Gragg, and Antonio Glynn all had ERAs of 4.03 or less, and they've all been let go; Raul Hernandez, another sub-4 ERA reliever, was released. Former Cy Young winner Ivy Christensen is also gone, and slugger Alfredo Kelly has been allowed to walk. These losses, however, were not without gains-- the new-look War Rhymers include free agent signings John Becker, J.R. Spooneybarger, Cody Lloyd, and Samuel Calderon, all of whom have had success. Overall, it certainly looks like the franchise will be worse for the wear this year-- even with some good signings, they have lost too much talent to realistically expect to win 97 games again this year. But 90 isn't out of the question if things go well, though a figure in the 80's seems more likely. With rumors swirling that other players are on the block, LA might not yet be done changing the faces on the roster, but this still appears to be a winning franchise for the moment-- perhaps the only one in the division.

Arizona BUTCHERS

This is a totally different team than the one we saw at the end of last year, and not just because of the new stadium or the logos on their uniforms. Clayton Kennedy, Wes Brown, J.R. Spooneybarger, Alex Melendez... the list of key departures goes on and on, and in their places, several free agent signings. Bingo Baker is now a Butcher, as professional platoon man Nick Miles. But Arizona is clearly in a massive rebuilding mode, and with so much talent shedded from the roster with little effort to replace it, look for this team to take a drastic turn this season. They aren't going to lose 100 games, but they may well end up on the wrong side of .500 very quickly. Stopgaps like Bobby Wheeler aren't going to help much either.

Las Vegas Madness

The Madness are clearly tired of losing, and they've made the moves to prove it this offseason. In a blockbuster deal with Ottowa, the Madness snagged Jose Bravo, Benito Terrero, and Ober Torres, three players the other teams will be sorry to have in their division. They also took the talented Dallas Phillips in the Rule 5 draft, a player with the potential to have an immediate impact as a rookie. Meanwhile, Vegas made a huge splash in the free agent market by signing closer Carlton Harding to a $35 million deal, and they snagged other decent players in Darryl Michaels and Wayne Tanner as well. The Madness have indeed been busy this offseason, and while they likely won't become a winning franchise overnight, they are prime candidates for most improved team in the majors and they may just creep up to 2nd in the division. With their vastly improved pitching, they may just beat the odds and become true contenders this season, but their success remains to be seen.

Honolulu Aloha

The Alohsa have been busy themselves doing a lot of house cleaning this winter. Franchise anchors Rafael Gutierrez and Miguel Sierra have moved on, and the Alohas have tried to fill the void by singing a flurry of pitchers including starters Roger Kelly and Alton Bevil and relievers Phillip Savage, Otis Hyers, and Marvin Barker. Normally quantity is no replacement for quality, but these pitchers all have the potential to be effective enough to give the Aloha some real quality in the bullpen and the rotation. On the offensive side, players who produced well last year like Neifi Romero and David Billingsley are gone, only to be replaced with mediocre "prospects" like Emmanuel Romero and Kent McRae. Their biggest offensive upgrade is undoubtedly rookie Harry Mateo, who provides middle-of-the-order hitting ability. All in all, it's difficult to say exactly how all these moves have affected the Aloha, but on paper it seems they have improved themselves this offseason. They're focusing on youth on their offense and effectively patching holes on their pitching staff. The new franchise ownership seems to want to make baby steps toward respectability, but if things keep going the way they are, they should be a competitive franchise before you know it.

Sunday, November 29, 2009

Season 10 outlook: AL South

Tampa Bay Thunder

The Thunder were devestated this offseason by their high-profile departures, most notably that of Warren Hargrave, last year's Cy Young winner and the subject of a bitter bidding war (and ultimately a trade) that sent him out of the division for good (after being signed originally by the rival Nala Bears). But they also managed to lose 2-time All-Star reliever Ron Owens, reliable starter Albert Farnsworth, and the still useful Trey Borland (who still hasn't found a home). Erubiel Bennett and Chuck Carson have been brought in to patch up those holes, but the Thunder's biggest move was trading for the young Clay Park, a former 6th overall pick who the Thunder hope will fully blossom this season in Tampa Bay. Rookie Lyle Stoddard will also be asked to pick up some of the slack for the team. The Thunder can expect to feel the losses of the aforementioned players, but they have done an admirable job of replacing them and they should still be good for a playoff appearance this year. The question is, will it be as a division winner or as a Wild Card team? With New Orleans in the division, the Thunder can't feel too safe this season.

New Orleans Bead Busters

Despite losing a few players (of varying usefulness) to free agency, New Orleans has improved slightly through various means. They made a shrewd Rule 5 pickup with former first rounder Bret Holzemer, signed big-time free agent Clayton Kennedy, and promoted a couple of talented role players in utilitymen Rogers Simpson and Bo Bailey. Their biggest coup, however, was capitalizing on Mark Matsumoto's surprising season and turning him into Hugh Hudson, an immediate upgrade at closer for the Busters. Management in New Orleans seems to have a clear idea of what it wants, and they are taking appropriate means to get it. This does not bode well for the other teams in the division, or in the league for that matter, as New Orleans is poised to cross the 100-win mark for the first time in franchise history. Getting to beat up on the Nala Bears and Illegals will only bolster their win totals, and this team should have very minimal trouble finding themselves in the playoffs once again.

Nashville Nala Bears

The day will come when Nashville, heretofore referred to as the laughingstock of the league, will be the most dominant team in baseball. With all their high draft picks and shrewd moves, they will easily become one of the deadliest teams in the league. Unfortunately, that day will probably not be today, although the team has made massive strides to bring itself to relevance. Big time prospects Brian Tomlin, Arthur Roosevelt, and Tommy Parker are ready for primetime and will start the season with the big club. Puzzling free agent signing Warren Hargrave has been dealt for superstar pitching prospect Jeremi Rice, a smart move for the future. Not much has been done externally to improve the team's chances this year, but the entire club is young and the development of core players alone from last season to this one will almost guarantee an increase in the Nalas' win totals. There's almost no way they lose 100 yet again this season, but 90 isn't out of the question until the reinforcements start to arrive over the next few seasons and push Nashville to the correct side of .500. They may surprise this year, but I would call a .500 record this season a supremely lofty goal.

El Paso Illegals

If I had to predict the team that would finish this season with the worst record, last year's 52-110 El Paso Illegals (formerly the Texas Express) would be the most likely guess. As bad as the team was last year, several players with glimpses of talent like Fernando Renteria are gone, and practically all the team's moves this year have been to allow players to leave or retire. Virtually the only positive move made this winter was the signing of journeyman Derrin McMillan (who's back in the majors for the first time in 3 years, although he did hit a combined 114 home runs in the past 2 AAA seasons). There's not much to say about this franchise other than that it's heading in the wrong direction. After an astonishing 31-win drop from season 8 to 9, El Paso enters the season after having had the 6th-lowest team OPS in the majors (.744) and by far the worst team ERA (6.80!) last year, and although Christopher Cora should bounce back from a disastrous season 9 campaign, there is frankly little significant help on the horizon on either the pitching or hitting side. This team will have to be rebuilt from the ground up for sure.

Season 10 outlook: AL East

Philadelphia Cheesesteaks

The Cheesesteaks have gone 6 straight years without failing to make the playoffs. Will this be the year to break the streak? In a word... maybe. Make no mistake about it: Philadelphia has gotten worse. They lost Kirk Kirby and Chuck Carson to free agency, which would have been bad enough, but they also lost longtime starter and 2-time Cy Young winner Andre Plesac. To make matters worse, those holes were patched by promoting 29-year old rookie Adrian Champion and 32-year old rookie Rico Romano, not exactly what you'd expect from a team looking to make a run at the World Series. Their only free agent signing was 36-year old Carlos Perez who, despite looking great for New Orleans last year, came into spring training looking like he had aged ten years (they're on the hook for 3 years/$16m, by the way). Maybe the organization believes there's not much to change after winning your division by 14 games the previous year. But with the entire team getting a lot older and with valuable pieces moving on to greener pastures, it's hard to say whether this team will be its usual impressive self or whether it will begin to sink in the division. Their only saving grace might be the weakness of the other teams in the East, but that sure won't help them come playoff time.

Durham Doormats

Confidence wasn't exactly inspired when the Cherokee moved to Durham and named themselves the Doormats. But this team that surprised everyone with an 86-win season last year likely won't find themsevles at the bottom of the standings any time soon. The bad news is, it's unlikely they'll find themselves near the top, either. After losing a slew of players to free agency like Matty Padilla, Heath Duffy, and Taylor Standridge, most of the Doormats' offseason moves involve promotions. Brian Wan should be a dependable defensive shortstop with home run power, Harry James has been an excellent all-around hitter in the minors, and Dale Simon has shown the ability to crush bad pitches. But none look like they will be legitimate superstars, and while they will be good major leaguers, the Doormats' pitching looks to be even weaker than it was last year (with a 4.93 team ERA) which will provide an uphill battle for the team all year. It's also hard to predict how the team will do with so many people being replaced this season. If anyone makes a run at the division title besides Philadelphia, it will be Durham, but they need to make sure they have the pieces in place to take advantage of their opportunity this year.

Hartford Stags

Hartford was dealt a serious blow when 4-time All-Star Bob Wood headed to Pittsburgh, and a slightly less serious one when reliever Brian Aaron went to division rival San Juan and weakened a pitching staff that already had a 5.42 ERA last year, 5th-to-last in the majors. They did add Jorel Austin and Geraldo Balboa, but they'll need to do a lot more to improve that pitching staff if they want to be contenders. As for their offense, while Wood is clearly in decline, it's unreasonable to expect guys like Robert Rogers to pick up the slack (after having a career year last season), or a guy like Kane Hobbes who is clearly on his last legs. Overall, there's not much to say about Hartford except that they don't look to come close to contending this year, and in fact it wouldn't be too surprising if they manage to regress from last year's 77-85 record.

San Juan Slumpbusters

San Juan has had a bit of a strange offseason. They lost Jake Koch and Walter Miceli this winter, and they replaced those players with the inferior Rob Michaels and Brian Aaron, respectively. Then they bagged Lonnie Cox, who didn't even play in the majors last year. It seems their strategy was to patch holes through the Rule 5 draft, but the only player of any value that they obtained was the mediocre Aramis Leon. For a team that finished the year with only a .758 OPS and a 4.95 team ERA in season 9, they needed to do more than that to compete. The Slumpbusters will likely be able to stay afloat with around 70 wins, and may even break out of the cellar if the Stags decline, but the team is clearly in a massive rebuilding mode and it seems it will be several years before we can expect a good baseball team in San Juan.

Friday, November 27, 2009

Season 10 outlook: AL North

Hello all, and welcome to another exciting season of Continental League baseball! Over the next 8 posts, I will be going division-by-division, taking a look at each of the teams and ultimately making predictions for the playoff teams, LCS winners, and eventual World Series Champion. In this edition, we will take a look at what was undoubtedly the strongest division in baseball last year: The AL North.

Minnesota Peacefrog

The 'Frog won baseball's strongest division last year with 101 wins, went 22-8 within the division, and employed 3 All-Stars. They could have stood pat and coasted to another playoff appearance, but instead they have made offseason moves to strengthen their already dominant roster. They traded for Del Moya to give themselves a power boost at catcher, then promptly made him a backup when they went out and signed Antonio Zhang. Felipe Ibanez (despite coming off a down year) should prove to be a steal for the Peacefrog in the same deal. Minnesota cast off some dead weight this offseason, but last year's core still remains, and the team looks to be even deadlier this time out. The biggest strength of this team is its pitching-- a rotation consisting of Jonathan Grebeck, Dan Shipley (coming back from elbow surgery), William Busby, Blake Robinson, and Omar Siqueiros? Forget a playoff appearance; I wouldn't count Minnesota out of the running for its first-ever World Series appearance this season.

Ottowa Otters

Benito Terrero, Jose Bravo, and Ober Torres all had down years last season. So when the Detroit Red Dogs moved to Ottowa, they decided not to take the trio with them, trading them to Las Vegas in a massive deal that sent three minor leaguers to the Otters. Wolf Ramsey will be on the 25-man for Ottowa this year after posting a 1.039 OPS in 3 minor league seasons, so he could provide an offensive boost for this team, but the loss of the three aforementioned players could prove disastrous if they reach their true potential in Sin City. Meanwhile, players like Lou Cassidy and Stone Faulkner have been promoted to patch holes at the major league level, skipping minor league levels along the way. The Otters signed a bunch of free agents as well, including pitcher Jake Canseco (who spent last season in the minors) and Miguel Aguilera (who has aged very rapidly over the past few years). Miguel Sierra will start for the O's, but will likely log only the 22-25 or so starts per years he saw in Oakland after having fatigue issues. It sounds like Ottowa is making a lot of moves to improve the team, but truth be told, this season's moves seem oddly like those of a team preparing to rebuild rather than one looking to make another run in a very crowded division. To be fair, this team won 102 games two season ago, so perhaps they believe last year's 89 victories were an anomaly and that the team will have no trouble making the playoffs this year despite taking a few downgrades. But even with an explosive offense that ranked third last year in runs scored, their lack of true pitching depth might cause the Otters to be the odd team out in the division this season.

Milwaukee Cream Citys

The Cream Citys saw several players from last year's roster, including former Cy Young candidate Earl Hammonds, file for free agency or get released this offseason. The solution? Go on a free agency spree. They resigned most of their departed players, plus a few new ones, like former Tampa Bay workhorse Ron Owens and former Snow Pirate Tim Juden. The biggest blow to Milwaukee this offseason would have to be the injury of superstar slugger Frank Martin-- while he is expected to be back in 2 weeks, his age and injury history beg questions regarding whether he will be as effective (and healthy) this season. Overall, the Citys look to be in a similar position to the one they were in last year, when they won 85 games and missed the playoffs by a nose-- but in this division, where it's often sink-or-swim, did the Cream Citys do enough to keep up with the Jonses? They don't strike most people as a team that can compete for the AL North crown this season, and unless they bring up some prospects or strike a big trade, this season may be another of scrapping for a Wild Card slot.

Syracuse Snow Pirates

After tying an AL record by winning 80 games as a last-place team in season 8, the Snow Pirates outdid themselves by breaking the all-time ML record by finishing last in season 9 despite recording 84 victories. After a much-publicized failure to land last year's Cy Young winner Warren Hargave during free agency, the team made a block buster deal that sent phenom Jeremi Rice to Nashville, ultimately snagging Hargrave before the Nalas had time to stitch his name into a uniform. Other than that, Syracuse has been very quiet, making only one other acquisition (reliever Frankie Herman) this offseason. Are the Snow Pirates doomed to improve upon their win total but finish last yet again? Well, with a better second half from Cyrus Torres and the additions of key minor leaguers, coupled with the fact that Syracuse is still maturing as an offensive team, expect the Snow Pirates to be improved this season, especially with their addition to the starting 5. Will they win the division? Probably not. Will they take a Wild Card spot? If a few things go particularly well, it's not out of the question to expect them to find themselves in the postseason for the first time in years.