I guess after my first set of previews I still have the job. The masses haven't gotten together with the pitchforks and burning brooms chasing me down, looking for justice. Maybe that's because I only gave one bad review so far or maybe it's because most of the owners didn't even care what I had to say. Really though, I think I did OK and I'm going to keep on putting them out until I get ousted.
The NL East has seen every team win the division at least once in 12 seasons. Not bad, and that shows that every team can do it. Not only that but there has only been 5 different owners in this division and the one extra came from season 1. So that means 4 of the same owners for now the 12th straight season. Jacksonville is the team that has had the most success, making it to the World Series three times and taking home a championship. Last season was their 7th division title, and the most wins in franchise history, but they were upset in their first series. New York put up a winning record for the eighth consecutive season but missed the playoffs for the second year in a row. They only have one losing season in their existence but have never made the NLCS. Kansas City just missed out on another winning season even though they have only been to the playoffs twice and won the division once. Then you have Cincinnati, who have finished 4th for six straight seasons now. But even they have one division title and have made the NLCS.
Jacksonville Juice
At 110-52 it's hard to call the season a disappointment, but when you don't make the LCS and you have the best record in the league it is just that. Just three seasons ago now this team was in the World Series and they really haven't let of the gas since. 97 wins then 110 wins the last two seasons have just led to heartbreak in the postseason for this team. They were close to the top of the league in every major category last season and really gave the fans a lot to be excited about. They were 3rd in the NL in batting average(275), 2nd in obp(351), 3rd in HR(243) and 1st in runs scored(926). Their weakness may have been defensively but even their they were 6th in fielding percentage(983), 7th in plus plays(42), and 4th in minus plays(44). Pitching was a major strength as the were 2nd in ERA(3.71), 2nd in opponents average(248), and 2nd in strike outs(1169). So how do you improve upon that? Do you demand to be #1 in every category? Well they are going to try. They brought up 2B Lefty Moehler traded for 2B Jeremy Stanley and signed C Brian Long, 3b Keith Sexson(resigned), and SS Kiki Duran, moves made to help the defense and offense. They extended the contracts of SP Robert Singleton and SP Jeffrey Rivera, both very talented young pitchers. They also accepted the option on very talented reliever Albie Johnson. They did lose aging reliever Raul Hernandez, C Dude McIntosh, SS Hector Cairo, and OF Lloyd Patrick. Those are some major losses. This is still a very talented team that has some young talent, but I'd be surprised to see them copy last seasons win total. A winning record is still a very safe bet but another season of having the top record in the NL isn't as likely.
New York Money Maker
Here is a team that has been very good for a long time, but just not good enough. They continually put out winning records to keep the fans happy, but just can't get over the top. Is this the season? Coming off a season that seen them go 82-80, dropping 8 victories from the previous seasons total, it has people wondering what direction this team is really going. Offensively they tied for 3rd in batting average(275), 6th in obp(338), 11th in hr(204), 9th in runs(774) and 3rd in steals(140). That is a bag of mixed tricks offensively. Defensively they finished 1st in fielding(988), 8th in plus plays(37) and 6th in minus plays(47). Defensively they were outstanding. Pitching they were 7th in ERA(4.37), 9th in opponents average(269), and converted 52 of 66 save opportunities. Theses numbers shows that this team was average among their peers. A team that has always been willing to spend money and normally have a pretty high payroll doesn't really want average. So, they lose to free agency, OF Vicente Gonzalez, and aging reliever Carlos Perez, neither were major losses. They promoted young and speedy OF/1b Mandy Whitfield and drafted in the Rule 5 draft SP Chris Shaw, both guys could help out the team in the proper roles. They signed the under performing SP Kenny Hogan hoping that a change of scenery will get him rolling. They have a mix of youth and experience among the top players on this team, but what worries me is the bottom of the roster. The will be asking a lot out of some average to below average players if they are going to make steps forward. It doesn't look like help is going to be on the way from within as well, as their best minor leaguers are not at the upper levels. I'm guessing this team will be close to where they were last season as far as the win total and maybe even a little less, but who am I to question a team that finds ways to win every season?
Kansas City Kardinals
After 5 straight winning seasons, this team took a little step backward last season by going 79-83. All those winning seasons and they never even sniffed the NLCS. They do have some good young talent entering their prime so this team could be close. Offensively they were 6th in hitting(270), 8th in obp(336), 5th in HR(220), and 8th in runs scored(786). Middle of the pack type numbers. When it came to fielding this team finished 9th(982), they were 12th in plus plays(33), and 8th in minus plays(56). Middle to low in fielding. They finished 6th in ERA(4.20), while being 4th in opponent average(259). So this team had some work to do in order to move that record north of 500 again. They do have some good young players C Chad Oliver, 2B Wally Spencer, OF Ichiro Pong, and SP Woody Parker and Alex Guerrero. The only real loss in free agency was aging SS Kiki Duran. They chose to stay quiet in free agency as they didn't see anyone that fit their plan. They also didn't make any trades as they chose to stay the course with what they have. This is another team that doesn't have much help coming from the upper minor league levels either. This is a pretty balanced team that I don't think are good enough to challenge for the division title and could be left out of the playoffs entirely. They really aren't too far off of being a good team but I just don't think this is the year. They could very well be back above 500 though.
Cincinnati Firestorm
This franchise has reeled off 5 straight losing seasons after the 73-89 showing last season and now 6 straight 4th place finishes in the division. Team owner jbburner says "After a few seasons of spinning the wheels, we have decided to make a move." He added "Anything short of making the playoffs this season will be a major disappointment." If they are going to make a move in this division, this is the season to get it done. A look back to last season, offensively this team finished 9th in average(268), 11th in obp(327), 15th in HR(171), 10th in runs(773) and 2nd in steals(181). They were 5th in fielding(984), 2nd in plus plays(82), 3rd in minus plays(33). The pitching department was 8th in ERA(4.42), 5th in opponent average(260), but only converted 42 of 70 save opportunities. Offensively this team needed a push, but the fielding was as solid as anyone with the pitching being good except for the low save percentage. So this team knew where it had to get better. They traded away one solid player that really contributed last season in 2B Jeremy Stanley, but got C Vic Diaz, SP Stevie Forbes, and SP Charlie Smith. They resigned RP Jorel Austin, who pitched good in 14 games with the club last season. They also signed a good player in 2B Dennis Nomura. Overall, Cincinnati's pitching staff isn't great but they do have some players in place that can help them. They have a lot of range and good gloves on defense that should help out the pitchers. The offense should be a little better than it was as well. I'm going to agree with management that this team should be better and I also think they could make a push for the post season as well. Will they? I'm not ready to say that, but it all depends on how the other teams in the NL shape up.
Prediction:
Overall, I'm not sold that this division as a whole is better than last season. I do think there will be some movement in the ranks but I think Jacksonville has a good hold on the top spot for this season too. The middle teams didn't move enough to match the top but the bottom moved enough to match them. Top to bottom it is a solid division that I don't think will produce a top 10 draft pick the following season unless things get started real bad for one of them and they decide to start rebuilding. This however may be the toughest division to predict after #1.
1.)Jacksonville Juice
2.)Cincinnati Firestorm
3.)New York Money Maker
4.)Kansas City Kardinals
Sunday, September 19, 2010
Saturday, September 18, 2010
Season 13 Previews: NL North
Well unfortunately for the NL North I'm going to make them my test division. Being that this is the first blog that I've done and don't have as many seasons of experience in the league as some of my fellow owners, it could be ugly and way out there. Seriously though, I am a lifelong hard core baseball fan and love stats. HBD is a dream come true for me, as it has everything I've ever loved about baseball, stats and competition. With that being said, here we go.
What is there to say about this division? It's pretty much routine that Fargo will finish first, Helena will finish second and usually take a wild card spot, then the other two will battle it out for the best of the bottom half. I mean, except for one season, that is exactly how the division has played out. It's pretty simple if making predictions here that you just right it in like that and if you get one of the bottom two wrong then you say, "Hey, at least I got the top two correct." The question then becomes, can it ever change? Well, I'll give you a little insight to that.
Fargo Woodchippers
After a disappointing season in Fargo, that seen the team go 87-75, which was the worst record in team history, fans are wondering if this team has hit the wall. They were still the best hitting team in the NL with a .279 average, but they were only 7th in OBP(.338), HR(214), and Runs(787). They were 3rd in the NL in fielding percentage(.985) and had a 69 plus plays compared to 46 minus. That is a pretty good fielding team. Pitching, they were 4th in the NL in ERA(4.00) and held opponents to a .261 average, which ranked 6th. They do have a dynamite closer Polin Castillo, who converted 45 saves out of 51 tries. They have a young and outstanding rotation that should be together for a while. So how did they go about improving this team even more? Sign free agents? Nope. Instead of going after free agents, they decided to focus on their own players. They signed RF Alton Olson, RP Vincente Juarez, 1B Jamie May, SP Karim Ontiveros, and SP Roland Sweeney to extensions to lock up some of their key players for future seasons. They only lost RP Dusty Dorsey that did anything worth mentioning for them last season, but his skills are on the decline. Owner starbuckdc says "The window of dominance may be closing, but we still feel strong about this season." Well, I think he is still down about last season because I don't see the dominance ending any time soon with this team. They are young and have a great GM that knows when to hold em and knows when to fold em. They are still in my mind the team to beat in this division and I can see them bouncing back and winning 100 games this season. I could see them in the World Series this season and I don't think anyone would be surprised.
What is there to say about this division? It's pretty much routine that Fargo will finish first, Helena will finish second and usually take a wild card spot, then the other two will battle it out for the best of the bottom half. I mean, except for one season, that is exactly how the division has played out. It's pretty simple if making predictions here that you just right it in like that and if you get one of the bottom two wrong then you say, "Hey, at least I got the top two correct." The question then becomes, can it ever change? Well, I'll give you a little insight to that.
Fargo Woodchippers
After a disappointing season in Fargo, that seen the team go 87-75, which was the worst record in team history, fans are wondering if this team has hit the wall. They were still the best hitting team in the NL with a .279 average, but they were only 7th in OBP(.338), HR(214), and Runs(787). They were 3rd in the NL in fielding percentage(.985) and had a 69 plus plays compared to 46 minus. That is a pretty good fielding team. Pitching, they were 4th in the NL in ERA(4.00) and held opponents to a .261 average, which ranked 6th. They do have a dynamite closer Polin Castillo, who converted 45 saves out of 51 tries. They have a young and outstanding rotation that should be together for a while. So how did they go about improving this team even more? Sign free agents? Nope. Instead of going after free agents, they decided to focus on their own players. They signed RF Alton Olson, RP Vincente Juarez, 1B Jamie May, SP Karim Ontiveros, and SP Roland Sweeney to extensions to lock up some of their key players for future seasons. They only lost RP Dusty Dorsey that did anything worth mentioning for them last season, but his skills are on the decline. Owner starbuckdc says "The window of dominance may be closing, but we still feel strong about this season." Well, I think he is still down about last season because I don't see the dominance ending any time soon with this team. They are young and have a great GM that knows when to hold em and knows when to fold em. They are still in my mind the team to beat in this division and I can see them bouncing back and winning 100 games this season. I could see them in the World Series this season and I don't think anyone would be surprised.
Helena Ass Clowns
This team has a history that most teams would love to have. Last season they went 71-91, and that marked the first time in their history that they had a losing record. How could it be possible that a team could be so good for so long and never take the division title? I guess when you make the post season 7 out of 12 seasons, it doesn't really matter. After all they do have a championship and the team that wins the division every season only has one more than that. I guess you could say that they have been pretty dominant themselves. Last season though was another story. They finished 13th in the NL in Average(263), 14th in OBP(321), 9th in HR(207), and 11th in runs(758). They didn't do so great in the field either, 8th in fielding percentage(983), and had 55 plus plays compared to 75 minus which was the 2nd worst in the league. The fielding obviously hurt their pitching as they finished 13th in ERA(4.82), and 11th in opponents average(274). Overall it was a disastrous season for this great franchise. They still have some key players on this team though. C Charles Torres is a great hitter, CF/SS/1b William Wang is a very talented player and the speedy 2b Francis Norton is a pretty good player himself. They have a very good closer in Ezdra Johnson, and they have a couple young starters that are going to be real good in Carlos Nieto and Diego Valbuena, but overall the pitching staff leaves something to be desired. In free agency they signed 6 time all star and 2 time mvp Lloyd Patrick and the speedy outfielder Jeff Creek that will bolster the offense and Creek should help the defense as well. They resigned 2 time all star starting pitcher Wayne Perez. They jettisoned 3b Mule Monroe and aging RF Samuel Calderon. They added a couple Rule 5 guys in relief pitcher Peaches Vazquez, who has the potential but may never realize it, and 1b Alex Rivera, a guy that could be a very good hitter. This is a team that I feel underperformed last season as a whole and with the additions they made could make it back above the 500 mark. I'm not ready to say that they will be a post season team, but they have a history and owner that proves they know how to win and get there. They aren't an old team and have some young talent so I believe they are headed back up and not down, as last season would suggest.
Trenton Thunder
Well, they finished third last season. Barely in third, but never the less, in third. 70-92 was where they finished. After three straight 100+ loss seasons, they made some progress by cutting 12 losses off the previous seasons total. Owner qtip32 is in his 3rd season of trying to remake this team and get them to the top and has at least shown the fans in Trenton improvement. Offensively the finished 12th in the NL in average(264), 16th in obp(316), 13th in HR(188), and 15th in steals(68). On the fielding side of things they were 13th in fielding percentage(979), and 11th in plus plays(34), but 12th in minus plays(62). They were 10th in ERA(4.59), 10th in opponents average(270) and 13th in saves by only converting 40 out of 64 tries. From the looks of things, they need to improve in every category in order to make any type of run. So they traded SP Brad Porter and 3b Marc Whitaker to Toledo for 2B Joe Betemit and SP Josias Ontiveros. The strange thing about that was that Ontiveros was left unprotected for the rule 5 draft and then drafted back by Toledo. They did sign SP Anthony Simon and SP Howard Fischer to help the pitching out, but that was about all they did in free agency. Trenton did promote 1B Rich Pierce(21) who has speed, hitting and a good eye to replace 1B Miguel Pichardo, who they lost in free agency. They promoted RP Ryan Maloney(25) who should be solid reliever with a very good Knuckleball. SS Cozy Corbin(25) was also promoted and he should provide speed, power and a good glove to the squad. They released RP Mack Tate and his 46 games and 2.91era, and 3b/2b Marshall Lilly who hit 10hr and hit 285 in 141 games last season. I do like closer Aaron Moorhouse(25) who in 65 games had a 4.61era a 7-8 record and converted 22 of 32 save opportunities, in his first full season in the bigs. They also have a good SP Esteban Villa. Trenton didn't do a whole lot in the off season but they did bring up some players that should help and have a few players in place that are good as well. I can see this team improving over last year, but they are not a post season competitor yet. They still have some work to do but they do have some talent in the minors that will help them in the coming seasons.
Cleveland Indians
Well what is there to say about this club? Only one winning season in their history and that was way back in season 4. They have had only one 100 loss season, but it sure seems like this team has been stuck in mediocrity or worse for the last 12 seasons. They have one of the highest payrolls in the league again this season and that didn't help them last season. Lonely548 is in his second season running the show for this franchise and needs to give the fans in Cleveland reason to believe it is worth spending that hard earned cash to go to the ballpark. If they have to settle for last place again it is going to be a hard sell. They finished last season at 65-97 and while it wasn't the big triple digit loss season it was pretty close. Offensively they were 7th in average(270), 9th in obp(331), last in HR(133), but 5th in SB(115). Defensively, 14th in fielding percentage(978), 15th in plus plays(20) and 14th in minus plays(72). They were 14th in ERA(5.35), 15th in opponents average(294) and 14th in saves, converting 38 of 55. This team really needed to improve in every category so fans figured it was going to be a big offseason. It wasn't. They only moves this team made was picking up the option of SP Chris Thompson, and signing 1B Kevin Wall. They do have some good players in place in SP Luis Rijo(29), SP Davey Quinones(27) and SS Corky Whitehead(25). But for the most part this is an aging group that is seeing most of it's players closing in on the big 30 or already above it. They have some players at the lower levels that should help out in a few seasons but the upper minor league levels are pretty bare, so it looks like these are the guys that will be filling the roster in Cleveland for a while. I don't see this team improving over last season and I'm really think things look pretty grim for this team that shares a division with Fargo and Helena.
Predictions
I guess it's my turn to fill in Fargo, Helena then fill in the blanks. I actually think this season is a little easier to pick the actual order of finish for this division. Unless something major like a trade or injury or just something totally unforeseen happens then this division is really going to come out the same as last season. I think that Helena and Trenton are better than last season but not enough better that they will overtake the team in front of them. Fargo is still one of the best in the league, and will win the division. Helena will be better and will challenge for a wild card spot.
1.)Fargo Wood Chippers
2.)Helena Ass Clowns
3.)Trenton Thunder
4.)Cleveland Indians
Sunday, June 13, 2010
Season 12 outlook: NL West
Seattle Strikers
Seattle has been all over the place for the past few years. After winning 79 games in Season 8, the team exploded with 98 in Season 9. Then, they disappointed with only 76 wins in Season 10, but surprised yet again with 90 wins and another division title last year. So which Seattle will we see this year? The answer is a much different one, given the flurry of changes that occurred this offseason. Vince Jefferson, a surprisingly good bat from last year, is gone, as is Pedro Batista, who had a career year as a reliever and starter for the Strikers last season. Taylor Standridge, Greg Tomlinson, and Louie James were among those who followed. The trading of Efrain Matsumoto and Brooks Mullins for prospects seems to indicate that the team is in rebuilding mode, but management insists that this isn't the case... yet. And this claim seems to be backed up by the fact that Seattle was one of the most active teams on the free agent market this winter. Julius Sowders, Casey Nielsen, Jake Canseco, Jayson Crawford, Peter Whang, Jorge Cueto, Kirk Kirby, Preston Williams, and Donaldo Torrealba are all brand new faces on this year's team, yet there is not a single marquee name among them (unless you count the past-his-prime Sowders), which says that Seattle was more interested in quantity this year than quality. The Strikers may still have it in them to win north of 90 games-- their pitching, the core of which is still around, was 4th in the NL last year with a 4.11 ERA-- but time will tell whether all the new additions will help the team's chances or hurt the clubhouse chemistry. The division was exceptionally weak last year, and if Seattle wins it again, it will be because of the NL West's weaknesses, not Seattle's strengths.
San Francisco Giants
Last year I wrote that with their overachievement in Season 10, plus an injury to their best player, pitcher Bret O'Leary, San Francisco would disappoint and only finish in 2nd place. And that is exactly what they did, regressing toward a win total more befitting their situation and level of talent. After losing Denny Lui, Bill Cohen, and Willie Pearson to free agency, one would have expected the Giants to go out and inject some new blood into the team for the upcoming season, but San Francisco largely decided to stand pat this year, signing only a handful of minor league free agents and making no major league trades. The team did call up a couple of non-prospects in Stevie Moseley and Darrell Bland, but other than that, the major league squad will look much like it did last year. Perhaps the Giants are hoping that a full season from O'Leary, plus player performances similar to what they got in Season 10, will make them a playoff team again, but that is a bit of a risk when you're talking about a team that won a mere 79 games last season. It's hard to know whether they're correct, but the team is far from complete top to bottom, making this a year when San Francisco could be particularly vulnerable.
Colorado Springs Night Watchmen
Just four years ago, Colorado Springs was celebrating their eighth straight playoff appearance (never having missed the postseason in franchise history) and were only one year removed from a World Series victory and their second straight World Series appearance. But that was a long time ago, and three straight Octobers sitting at home-- with a mere .473 winning percentage over that span, including only 67 wins last year-- is enough to make any fanbase question the direction of the franchise. After losing a host of players to free agency, including Barry Gibson, Steve Brock, Alex Melendez, Roy Hiatt, Danny Busby, Rob Buckley, and Albert Polanco, it certainly looked like it was spiraling downward. But the Night Watchmen had an ace up their sleeve, trading for 3-time MVP Steve Minor, a powerhouse bat who's enough to turn any team's pessimism into optimism. They also dealt for Ryan Gonzales and claimed Ronnie Miller off waivers, bolstering their pitching staff this season. And they promoted a bit of talent as well, bringing up defensive whiz Flip Mills, slugger Polin Romero, and catcher Kelvin Easterly. It seems diffcult to believe Colorado Springs will be as bad as they were last year, and with the addition of Minor and some other key components, they are likely to improve upon their record from Season 11. But unfortunately, many of the problems that plagued the club last year (like a 5.35 team ERA) still largely remain, making this a potential year to forget for the Night Watchmen.
Scottsdale Scorpions
Ah, last but not least, the team that seemed to make headlines every other day this past winter with their marquee offseason moves. New management came in last year, watched this team go 65-97, and immediately vowed never to come close to such a dismal record again. So they tossed aside many of the players responsible for last year's disaster, including Homer Browning, John Huang, Anthony Stroud, Alex Grey, Toby Thompson, and Leo Priddy, and went out and got themselves some shiny new free agents. Vic Servet, decorated with Rookie of the Year honors, four All-Star games, and Silver Sluggers at 2B and CF, will give the team defensive versatility and offensive firepower. Omar Siqueiros, an MVP candidate last year who boats five Silver Sluggers at SS and five All-Star game appearances, gives them a great bat in the lineup and a good glove up the middle. Tim Juden, an All-Star with four different clubs, looks to continue his solid career with the Scorpions. All-Star Victor Daly brings two World Series rings to the table, as well as a great 3.45 career ERA. Former Rookie of the Year Steve Brock also has a World Series ring, not to mention a stellar track record as a starter. And the usually-reliable and very talented Esteban Dotel looks to rebound from an off year and aid Scottsdale as well. They've even added youth, trading for stud Darren Bailey and promoting Damaso Infante, two guys who could easily compete for Rookie of the Year honors, with several other prospects in the minors looking to come up soon as well. And let's not forget about the first full season of the guy Sports Illustrated called "the greatest international free agent of all time," Jorge Renteria, who put up a ridiculous 1.157 OPS last year in 230 major league at-bats and is already looking like a favorite to win a couple NL MVP awards before he's done with arbitration. All in all, Scottsdale is unquestionably the most improved team of the year, and ownership has said that their goal is to make a run at the playoffs as early as next season. But don't count them out of the playoffs as early as this season.
PREDICTION
1. Scottsdale
2. Seattle
3. San Francisco
4. Colorado Springs
Scottsdale goes from worst to first this year as they make moves that put them leaps and bounds ahead of the competition. Their starting pitching will be the biggest concern, but if Raymond Simmons pitches like I know he can and some of the other starters come through, Scottsdale's potent offense should carry them to enough wins to clinch the division and secure the team's first playoff appearance since Season 4. Meanwhile, Seattle will likely put up a good fight despite making so many roster changes, while San Fran will likely struggle a bit as they return a duplicate of the team that was so disappointing last year. Colorado Springs will be much improved with the addition of Minor, but with such poor pitching, I just can't see them competing at all this year.
Seattle has been all over the place for the past few years. After winning 79 games in Season 8, the team exploded with 98 in Season 9. Then, they disappointed with only 76 wins in Season 10, but surprised yet again with 90 wins and another division title last year. So which Seattle will we see this year? The answer is a much different one, given the flurry of changes that occurred this offseason. Vince Jefferson, a surprisingly good bat from last year, is gone, as is Pedro Batista, who had a career year as a reliever and starter for the Strikers last season. Taylor Standridge, Greg Tomlinson, and Louie James were among those who followed. The trading of Efrain Matsumoto and Brooks Mullins for prospects seems to indicate that the team is in rebuilding mode, but management insists that this isn't the case... yet. And this claim seems to be backed up by the fact that Seattle was one of the most active teams on the free agent market this winter. Julius Sowders, Casey Nielsen, Jake Canseco, Jayson Crawford, Peter Whang, Jorge Cueto, Kirk Kirby, Preston Williams, and Donaldo Torrealba are all brand new faces on this year's team, yet there is not a single marquee name among them (unless you count the past-his-prime Sowders), which says that Seattle was more interested in quantity this year than quality. The Strikers may still have it in them to win north of 90 games-- their pitching, the core of which is still around, was 4th in the NL last year with a 4.11 ERA-- but time will tell whether all the new additions will help the team's chances or hurt the clubhouse chemistry. The division was exceptionally weak last year, and if Seattle wins it again, it will be because of the NL West's weaknesses, not Seattle's strengths.
San Francisco Giants
Last year I wrote that with their overachievement in Season 10, plus an injury to their best player, pitcher Bret O'Leary, San Francisco would disappoint and only finish in 2nd place. And that is exactly what they did, regressing toward a win total more befitting their situation and level of talent. After losing Denny Lui, Bill Cohen, and Willie Pearson to free agency, one would have expected the Giants to go out and inject some new blood into the team for the upcoming season, but San Francisco largely decided to stand pat this year, signing only a handful of minor league free agents and making no major league trades. The team did call up a couple of non-prospects in Stevie Moseley and Darrell Bland, but other than that, the major league squad will look much like it did last year. Perhaps the Giants are hoping that a full season from O'Leary, plus player performances similar to what they got in Season 10, will make them a playoff team again, but that is a bit of a risk when you're talking about a team that won a mere 79 games last season. It's hard to know whether they're correct, but the team is far from complete top to bottom, making this a year when San Francisco could be particularly vulnerable.
Colorado Springs Night Watchmen
Just four years ago, Colorado Springs was celebrating their eighth straight playoff appearance (never having missed the postseason in franchise history) and were only one year removed from a World Series victory and their second straight World Series appearance. But that was a long time ago, and three straight Octobers sitting at home-- with a mere .473 winning percentage over that span, including only 67 wins last year-- is enough to make any fanbase question the direction of the franchise. After losing a host of players to free agency, including Barry Gibson, Steve Brock, Alex Melendez, Roy Hiatt, Danny Busby, Rob Buckley, and Albert Polanco, it certainly looked like it was spiraling downward. But the Night Watchmen had an ace up their sleeve, trading for 3-time MVP Steve Minor, a powerhouse bat who's enough to turn any team's pessimism into optimism. They also dealt for Ryan Gonzales and claimed Ronnie Miller off waivers, bolstering their pitching staff this season. And they promoted a bit of talent as well, bringing up defensive whiz Flip Mills, slugger Polin Romero, and catcher Kelvin Easterly. It seems diffcult to believe Colorado Springs will be as bad as they were last year, and with the addition of Minor and some other key components, they are likely to improve upon their record from Season 11. But unfortunately, many of the problems that plagued the club last year (like a 5.35 team ERA) still largely remain, making this a potential year to forget for the Night Watchmen.
Scottsdale Scorpions
Ah, last but not least, the team that seemed to make headlines every other day this past winter with their marquee offseason moves. New management came in last year, watched this team go 65-97, and immediately vowed never to come close to such a dismal record again. So they tossed aside many of the players responsible for last year's disaster, including Homer Browning, John Huang, Anthony Stroud, Alex Grey, Toby Thompson, and Leo Priddy, and went out and got themselves some shiny new free agents. Vic Servet, decorated with Rookie of the Year honors, four All-Star games, and Silver Sluggers at 2B and CF, will give the team defensive versatility and offensive firepower. Omar Siqueiros, an MVP candidate last year who boats five Silver Sluggers at SS and five All-Star game appearances, gives them a great bat in the lineup and a good glove up the middle. Tim Juden, an All-Star with four different clubs, looks to continue his solid career with the Scorpions. All-Star Victor Daly brings two World Series rings to the table, as well as a great 3.45 career ERA. Former Rookie of the Year Steve Brock also has a World Series ring, not to mention a stellar track record as a starter. And the usually-reliable and very talented Esteban Dotel looks to rebound from an off year and aid Scottsdale as well. They've even added youth, trading for stud Darren Bailey and promoting Damaso Infante, two guys who could easily compete for Rookie of the Year honors, with several other prospects in the minors looking to come up soon as well. And let's not forget about the first full season of the guy Sports Illustrated called "the greatest international free agent of all time," Jorge Renteria, who put up a ridiculous 1.157 OPS last year in 230 major league at-bats and is already looking like a favorite to win a couple NL MVP awards before he's done with arbitration. All in all, Scottsdale is unquestionably the most improved team of the year, and ownership has said that their goal is to make a run at the playoffs as early as next season. But don't count them out of the playoffs as early as this season.
PREDICTION
1. Scottsdale
2. Seattle
3. San Francisco
4. Colorado Springs
Scottsdale goes from worst to first this year as they make moves that put them leaps and bounds ahead of the competition. Their starting pitching will be the biggest concern, but if Raymond Simmons pitches like I know he can and some of the other starters come through, Scottsdale's potent offense should carry them to enough wins to clinch the division and secure the team's first playoff appearance since Season 4. Meanwhile, Seattle will likely put up a good fight despite making so many roster changes, while San Fran will likely struggle a bit as they return a duplicate of the team that was so disappointing last year. Colorado Springs will be much improved with the addition of Minor, but with such poor pitching, I just can't see them competing at all this year.
Season 12 outlook: NL South
Charleston Riverdogs
The Fargo Wood Chippers seem to always get the press in the National League. They undoubtedly deserve the praise, considering their rich tradition of winning and the fact that they had the best record in the NL last year. But although Fargo ended up winning the NL pennant and advancing to the World Series, it is very possible that Charleston, not Fargo, was the NL's best team in Season 11. Their .834 OPS easily led the NL, and their pitchers led the league in opponent BA (.251), opponent OBP (.311), and opponent slugging percentage (.380), not to mention strikeouts (1198) and WHIP (1.28). Given these numbers, it's easy to see why the Riverdogs enter the season as an easy favorite to win the South, even over the ALCS-appearing Monterrey Jacks (more on them below). But what's even scarier is that Charleston figures to be even better this year after making one of the biggest free agency signings of the winter, nabbing future Hall of Famer Frank Martin and bolstering an already intimidating lineup. The team's only real losses were space-wasters Bobby Donahue and Glenn Mercedes, probably constituting addition by subtraction. And Enos Jones will likely see his rookie season this year and immediately compete for Rookie of the Year honors. Toss in the acquisition of stud prospect Carl Esposito this winter, and Fargo may have to move over as the most celebrated team in the NL. Charleston is loaded with talent and hungry for a championship this year, and it's not a stretch to say they'll finally do just that.
Monterrey Jacks
Announcers used all sorts of adjectives to describe the Jacks last year as they launched multiple upsets en route to an ALCS appearance-- "scrappy," "pesky," "sneaky"-- but their postseason success should have come as little surprise to most baseball fans, as this team was clearly built for the postseason, not the regular season. Go into a short series with Dock King, Oscar Osterbrock, and Dean Harvey as your starting pitchers and drop your mediocre #4 and #5 guys, and suddenly the Monterrey Jacks have one of the best rotations in the playoffs. But making the playoffs is half the battle, and the Jacks almost missed them last year due to those very bottom-of-the-rotation pitchers going a combined 19-20, as well as a bullpen that went a mediocre 30-26 with a 5.30 ERA. Changes were clearly on the horizon, and the most important was bagging starter Bill Richard and replacing him with phenom rookie Willie Jacquez, a move that will give the team a much more consistent set of pitchers from top to bottom. Reliever B.C. Nunez also left, but the Jacks responded by signing Willie Pearson and Robin Schalk, both of whom will strengthen a weak bullpen. Monterrey improved offensively as well, dumping part-timers Bobby Valent and Craig Howell but signing Jared Brown and Willie Ayala and promoting catching prospect Max Perez. Like Nashville, Monterrey is a young team that, through sheer maturity and development, probably could have improved by doing nothing this offseason. But with these moves, the Jacks have given themselves great reason to believe they will make a return to the playoffs this year, and if they play their cards right, they may even manage to give Charleston a run for their money.
Texas Beavers
Once a yearly threat to make the playoffs (though they seldom delivered), Texas has played third fiddle in the NL South for 3 years strong, and while they have no chance of finishing fourth this year, they still have little chance of catching up to the division's top two teams. That hasn't stopped them from making a slew of roster moves, however, to improve their chances and add to last year's fairly disappointing win total. Tom Chambers, a borderline MVP candidate as recently as Season 10, all but vanished last season and has now left for free agency, as have the solid Willie Barajas and William Davenport. They've promoted several youngsters, including Dean Podsednik, Brooks Schalk, and Miguel Morlan (though only Podsednik really looks like he'll be a big help this year). But the intriguing aspect of the Beavers' winter was the many trades that were made. They nabbed slugger Juan Torres from Ottawa, but had to give up relievers Clarence Cain and Alex Ordonez to get him. They got Paul Wang (who seems to have lost some of his pop) from Chicago, but gave up pitcher Harry Lunar. To make up for these pitching losses, they also dealt for Atlanta's Jorel Austin and Toledo's Santiago Mercado-- but they had to give up Don Li (another pitcher) and Jose Martin, respectively, to get them. It seems to be that Texas is going for a more offensive-minded approach this year, and they should certainly see an increase in runs scored with these acquisitons. But with the lack of improvements to their pitching staff, the Beavers probably won't have much hope to reach the playoffs this season. Another third place finish looks like Texas' destiny, but an increase in wins to around 85-- or even as many as 90 if they're lucky-- also seems to be on the horizon.
Richmond Red Devils
My mother always said that if you have nothing to say, you should say nothing at all. Well, I can't just leave this preview blank, so I'll say the nicest thing I can think of: Richmond fans likely have a great amateur draft to look forward to, with the franchise holding the first overall pick. Other than that, though, this year looks like another summer of misery for fans of this cursed franchise, which is on its eighth ownership group in nine years. Last year, while the franchise played in Iowa City, the team blew away the bottom of the barrel and finished dead last in the majors with a disgusting 6.35 team ERA. They placed only ahead of Toledo in the majors with an unsightly .724 team OPS, and were also terrible in the field, finishing second-to-last in the majors with a .975 fielding percentage. The team did make some moves this offseason, but at this point, it feels like they're just rearranging deck chairs on the Titanic. A parade of miserable players including the likes of Brian Frey, Dusty Dorsey, Frank Wang, Wilson Thornton, Al Pinzon, and Jay Spencer all either left for free agency or were given their walking papers this winter. Their two major signings, B.C. Nunez and Max Padilla, are both coming off poor seasons but sadly will be enormous upgrades for the team. Andrew Wilkerson was promoted and should improve the team with his bat and glove, but oddly, the team's best move this offseason was a Rule 5 pick, selecting the supremely talented Pedro Cordero, who immediately becomes the second- or third-best hitter on the team. This franchise has still got years before it can ever hope to be in the playoff discussion, but after losing a National League-record 119 games last season, this team looks sure to at least surpass the rock-bottom depths it dealt with last year. Before this team ever thinks about championships, it has to climb the very high ladder toward 63+ wins.
PREDICTION
1. Charleston
2. Monterrey
3. Texas
4. Richmond
Charleston should take the division and may lead the NL in wins this year, though Monterrey should put up a good fight. Last year's Wild Card drama in Monterrey may disappear this season as the team slides much more comfortably into the playoff picture, and 100 wins is not out of the question. Texas should be just fine, and should finish well over .500, though playoffs will not be in the cards for them. Richmond will still lose north of 100 games, but has still made improvements from last year. This is a rare division in which all four teams should improve upon their win totals from last year, though only Charleston and Monterrey look like true playoff contenders. And once again, if the Jacks do make the playoffs, don't be surprised to see them go far again with their ever-improving rotation.
The Fargo Wood Chippers seem to always get the press in the National League. They undoubtedly deserve the praise, considering their rich tradition of winning and the fact that they had the best record in the NL last year. But although Fargo ended up winning the NL pennant and advancing to the World Series, it is very possible that Charleston, not Fargo, was the NL's best team in Season 11. Their .834 OPS easily led the NL, and their pitchers led the league in opponent BA (.251), opponent OBP (.311), and opponent slugging percentage (.380), not to mention strikeouts (1198) and WHIP (1.28). Given these numbers, it's easy to see why the Riverdogs enter the season as an easy favorite to win the South, even over the ALCS-appearing Monterrey Jacks (more on them below). But what's even scarier is that Charleston figures to be even better this year after making one of the biggest free agency signings of the winter, nabbing future Hall of Famer Frank Martin and bolstering an already intimidating lineup. The team's only real losses were space-wasters Bobby Donahue and Glenn Mercedes, probably constituting addition by subtraction. And Enos Jones will likely see his rookie season this year and immediately compete for Rookie of the Year honors. Toss in the acquisition of stud prospect Carl Esposito this winter, and Fargo may have to move over as the most celebrated team in the NL. Charleston is loaded with talent and hungry for a championship this year, and it's not a stretch to say they'll finally do just that.
Monterrey Jacks
Announcers used all sorts of adjectives to describe the Jacks last year as they launched multiple upsets en route to an ALCS appearance-- "scrappy," "pesky," "sneaky"-- but their postseason success should have come as little surprise to most baseball fans, as this team was clearly built for the postseason, not the regular season. Go into a short series with Dock King, Oscar Osterbrock, and Dean Harvey as your starting pitchers and drop your mediocre #4 and #5 guys, and suddenly the Monterrey Jacks have one of the best rotations in the playoffs. But making the playoffs is half the battle, and the Jacks almost missed them last year due to those very bottom-of-the-rotation pitchers going a combined 19-20, as well as a bullpen that went a mediocre 30-26 with a 5.30 ERA. Changes were clearly on the horizon, and the most important was bagging starter Bill Richard and replacing him with phenom rookie Willie Jacquez, a move that will give the team a much more consistent set of pitchers from top to bottom. Reliever B.C. Nunez also left, but the Jacks responded by signing Willie Pearson and Robin Schalk, both of whom will strengthen a weak bullpen. Monterrey improved offensively as well, dumping part-timers Bobby Valent and Craig Howell but signing Jared Brown and Willie Ayala and promoting catching prospect Max Perez. Like Nashville, Monterrey is a young team that, through sheer maturity and development, probably could have improved by doing nothing this offseason. But with these moves, the Jacks have given themselves great reason to believe they will make a return to the playoffs this year, and if they play their cards right, they may even manage to give Charleston a run for their money.
Texas Beavers
Once a yearly threat to make the playoffs (though they seldom delivered), Texas has played third fiddle in the NL South for 3 years strong, and while they have no chance of finishing fourth this year, they still have little chance of catching up to the division's top two teams. That hasn't stopped them from making a slew of roster moves, however, to improve their chances and add to last year's fairly disappointing win total. Tom Chambers, a borderline MVP candidate as recently as Season 10, all but vanished last season and has now left for free agency, as have the solid Willie Barajas and William Davenport. They've promoted several youngsters, including Dean Podsednik, Brooks Schalk, and Miguel Morlan (though only Podsednik really looks like he'll be a big help this year). But the intriguing aspect of the Beavers' winter was the many trades that were made. They nabbed slugger Juan Torres from Ottawa, but had to give up relievers Clarence Cain and Alex Ordonez to get him. They got Paul Wang (who seems to have lost some of his pop) from Chicago, but gave up pitcher Harry Lunar. To make up for these pitching losses, they also dealt for Atlanta's Jorel Austin and Toledo's Santiago Mercado-- but they had to give up Don Li (another pitcher) and Jose Martin, respectively, to get them. It seems to be that Texas is going for a more offensive-minded approach this year, and they should certainly see an increase in runs scored with these acquisitons. But with the lack of improvements to their pitching staff, the Beavers probably won't have much hope to reach the playoffs this season. Another third place finish looks like Texas' destiny, but an increase in wins to around 85-- or even as many as 90 if they're lucky-- also seems to be on the horizon.
Richmond Red Devils
My mother always said that if you have nothing to say, you should say nothing at all. Well, I can't just leave this preview blank, so I'll say the nicest thing I can think of: Richmond fans likely have a great amateur draft to look forward to, with the franchise holding the first overall pick. Other than that, though, this year looks like another summer of misery for fans of this cursed franchise, which is on its eighth ownership group in nine years. Last year, while the franchise played in Iowa City, the team blew away the bottom of the barrel and finished dead last in the majors with a disgusting 6.35 team ERA. They placed only ahead of Toledo in the majors with an unsightly .724 team OPS, and were also terrible in the field, finishing second-to-last in the majors with a .975 fielding percentage. The team did make some moves this offseason, but at this point, it feels like they're just rearranging deck chairs on the Titanic. A parade of miserable players including the likes of Brian Frey, Dusty Dorsey, Frank Wang, Wilson Thornton, Al Pinzon, and Jay Spencer all either left for free agency or were given their walking papers this winter. Their two major signings, B.C. Nunez and Max Padilla, are both coming off poor seasons but sadly will be enormous upgrades for the team. Andrew Wilkerson was promoted and should improve the team with his bat and glove, but oddly, the team's best move this offseason was a Rule 5 pick, selecting the supremely talented Pedro Cordero, who immediately becomes the second- or third-best hitter on the team. This franchise has still got years before it can ever hope to be in the playoff discussion, but after losing a National League-record 119 games last season, this team looks sure to at least surpass the rock-bottom depths it dealt with last year. Before this team ever thinks about championships, it has to climb the very high ladder toward 63+ wins.
PREDICTION
1. Charleston
2. Monterrey
3. Texas
4. Richmond
Charleston should take the division and may lead the NL in wins this year, though Monterrey should put up a good fight. Last year's Wild Card drama in Monterrey may disappear this season as the team slides much more comfortably into the playoff picture, and 100 wins is not out of the question. Texas should be just fine, and should finish well over .500, though playoffs will not be in the cards for them. Richmond will still lose north of 100 games, but has still made improvements from last year. This is a rare division in which all four teams should improve upon their win totals from last year, though only Charleston and Monterrey look like true playoff contenders. And once again, if the Jacks do make the playoffs, don't be surprised to see them go far again with their ever-improving rotation.
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