Pine Tar's Top-20 Playoff Upsets

With the top 4 teams in regular season record (Salem, Nashville, Houston, Milwaukee) all being eliminated before the league championship series, I thought it would be interesting to look at Pine Tar's playoff upset history.  Below is a list of the top-20 playoff upsets in Pine Tar's 33-season history.  The list is ordered by win differential (WD) between the underdog and the favorite.  Upsets with a win differential greater than 16 games made the top-20 list.  In the event of a tie, the favorite with the higher regular season win total was considered a bigger upset.  Some commentary is posted after the top-20 list.

**Click here to view playoff brackets**

#20.  Scottsdale (79-83, vector21) over Charleston (95-67, bjohara1), 16 WD – Season 17 NLPI

#19.  Wichita (86-76, jibe) over Seattle (102-60, ghutton9), 16 WD – Season 29 NLDS

#18.  Helena (90-72, moosedrool) over Fargo (107-55, starbuckdc), 17 WD – Season 8 NLDS

#17.  Hartford (91-71, bpdelia) over Philadelphia (108-54, domiisgod), 17 WD – Season 6 ALCS

#16.  Milwaukee (83-79, jquick1) over Pittsburgh (101-61, blues_bros), 18 WD – Season 18 ALPI

#15.  Fresno (85-77, dlmose) over Nashville (104-58, blapo21), 19 WD – Season 30 ALDS

#14.  Tampa Bay (89-73, rxw1) over Fargo (108-54, starbuckdc), 19 WD – Season 11 World Series

#13.  Durham (79-83, alogman1) over Milwaukee (99-63, jquick1), 20 WD – Season 13 ALPI

#12.  Milwaukee (83-79, jquick1) over Dover (103-59, tmfran), 20 WD – Season 18 ALDS

#11.  Dover (87-75, tmfran) over Boston (107-55, kjmulli), 20 WD – Season 27 ALDS

#10.  Jacksonville (88-74, greygoose123) over Colorado Springs (108-54, toe64), 20 WD – Season 2 NLDS

#9.  Jacksonville (85-77, greygoose123) over Houston (106-56, bagwellbuff), 21 WD – Season 25 NLDS

#8.  Milwaukee (88-74, jquick1) over Syracuse (109-53, prezuiwf), 21 WD – Season 15 ALDS

#7.  Scottsdale (79-83, vector21) over Jackson (102-60, bobbyj7), 23 WD – Season 17 NLDS

#6.  St. Louis (84-78, flucie) over Nashville (107-55, bnags), 23 WD – Season 19 ALDS

#5.  Oakland (78-84, jayesnb) over Ottawa (104-58, ewd330), 26 WD – Season 11 ALPI

#4.  Scottsdale (88-74, vector21) over Syracuse (115-47, prezuiwf), 27 WD – Season 14 World Series

#3.  Syracuse (90-72, joekendall) over Salem (119-43, jkenned), 29 WD – Season 33 ALDS

#2.  Boise (83-79, godao) over Nashville (113-49, blapo21), 30 WD – Season 33 ALDS

#1.  Tampa Bay (89-73, rxw1) over Syracuse (121-41, prezuiwf), 32 WD – Season 11 ALCS


This season's upsets of Salem and Nashville ranked second and third all-time in Pine Tar history.  Overall, season 33 has had four upsets with a win differential of at least 13 games (Nashville 30, Salem 29, Milwaukee 14, and Houston 13).  First-year owner godao was responsible for two of those upsets with his 83-79 Boise team.  This gives season 33 the most shocking playoff results since season 11.  In season 11, there were five upsets with a win differential of at least 15 games.  Owner rxw1 pulled three of those upsets, including the #1 upset of all time, as his 89-73 Tampa Bay team caught fire in the playoffs and defeated 104-58 Milwaukee in the ALDS, 121-41 Syracuse in the ALCS, and 108-54 Fargo in the World Series.  Additional upsets in season 11 included the #5 upset of all time (Oakland over Ottawa) and a 15-win differential upset of Monterrey over Charleston, which just missed the top-20 list.  
Milwaukee and Scottsdale caused fits for owners that had outstanding regular season records during seasons 14-18.  In season 17, a 79-83 Scottsdale team coached by vector21, advanced to the ALCS by scoring the #6 and #19 upsets of all time.  The following season, jquick1's #6-seeded Milwaukee team also advanced to the league championship series by earning the #10 and #16 upsets in Pine Tar history, over Dover and Pittsburgh.  Beginning in season 14, powerhouse Syracuse (with 115 and 109 wins) was upset in consecutive seasons by Scottsdale and Milwaukee.  The Scottsdale upset occurred in the World Series, giving them the title with an 88-74 record.  

Season 29 had the wildest postseason in recent history.  Owner skplayer07's 91-71 Vancouver team made an improbable run to the World Series, where they fell one game short of winning the title.  In the process, they pulled 15-game win differential upsets over Boston and Salem, who both had a 106-56 record.  In the round before being upset by Vancouver, Salem needed all 5 games to defeat an 82-80 Milwaukee team.  Meanwhile in the National League, Wichita upset 102-win Seattle, which ranks #19 in Pine Tar history.  In addition, #2-seed Louisville fell in the NLDS to eventual World Series champs Scranton.

Out of the top-20 all-time Pine Tar upsets, 60% (12) occurred in a league division series, 4 occurred in a play-in series, 2 in a championship series, and 2 in the World Series.  13 of the 20 upsets were earned by American League teams, while 7 of the upsets were pulled by National League teams.

S33 All-Star Blog

Pine Tar's Season 33 All-Star Game game took place this past week with a young National League squad, consisting of 15 first-time all-stars, defeating the American League by the score of 8-2.  Jacksonville's catcher, Tanyon Graves, was named the Most-Valuable Player in his first all-star appearance, as his two 2-RBI doubles broke the game open for the NL.  Brandon Taylor (San Juan) was the winning pitcher in his 10th career all-star appearance, while Lariel Osuna (Nashville) took the loss for the AL.  Homeruns were hit by Scott Duncan (Iowa City) and Wendell Werth (Nashville).  Season 31 NL MVP Eli Cruz (San Juan) won the Homerun Derby, while Season 31 #11 amateur draft pick Daniel Mulholland (Scranton) was the Future's Game MVP.

Teams with the most All-Star selections:

Nashville Merchants (blapo21) - 7
Salem Volcanoes (jkenned) - 7
San Juan Dw'Arfy Mojados (jibe) - 5
Jacksonville Juice (greygoose123) - 5
Chicago Thugs (wyvern737) - 4
Scranton Red Barons (reggie988) - 3
Houston Roughnecks (bagwellbuff) - 3
Albuquerque Komodo Dragons (csudak) - 3
Syracuse Orange (joekendall) - 3

Teams with zero All-Star selections:

Dover Dinklebergs
Milwaukee Magnitude
New York Damage Controllers
Boston Pilgrims
Huntington Drunkin' BArfys
Tampa Bay Thunder
Wichita Tornadoes
Texas Galveston Wave
Seattle Strikers
Colorado Springs Sky Sox

All-Stars by Division
NL East - 13
AL West - 12
AL East - 8
AL South - 8
NL North - 7
NL South - 6
NL West - 4
AL North - 2

*Links are posted - click on an individual player's name to open their HBD profile

First Time All-Stars – American League

P - Pedro Ontiveros (Coursers)
P - Lariel Osuna (Merchants)
P - Dillon Abbott (Oracles)
P - Ismael Amaro (Doble)
P - Charles Punto (Volcanoes)
P - Domingo Mendoza (Skywalkers)
1B - Brian Hume (Orange)
1B - Felipe Osoria (Yardbirds)
2B - Trinidad Ross (Orange)
CF - Louis Fitzgerald (Oracles)
RF - Hugh Patterson (Yardbirds)

First Time All-Stars – National League

P - Rodrigo Andujar (Roughnecks)
P - Vasco Tejeda (Prairie Dogs)
P - Miguel Siqueiros (Firestorm)
P - Omar Mercedes (Hawkeyes)
P - Ivan DeRojas (Juggernauts)
P - Stewart Hall (Roughnecks)
P - Andy Ganzel (Miracles)
C - Tanyon Graves (Juice)
C - Louie Seanez (ARF ARF ARF ARF's)
2B - Scott Duncan (Hawkeyes)
3B - Sherm Springer (Firestorm)
3B - Neifi Gil (Roughnecks)
LF - Joakim Vizcaino (Moneymakers)
CF - Marcell Escobar (Juice)
RF - Luis Cruz (Red Barons)

All-Stars Making Their 5th Appearance or Greater
P - Sticky Farquhar (Merchants) - 10
P - Brendan Taylor (Dw'Arfy Mojados) - 10
C - Bengie Trajano (Doormats) - 8
1B - Tony Caballero (Dw'Arfy Mojados) - 7
P - John McNamara (Thugs) - 6
P - Geronimo Estrada (Dw'Arfy Mojados) - 6
P - Alex James (Merchants) - 5
3B - Cristobal Izquierdo (Volcanoes) - 5
RF - Roger Byrne (Thugs) - 5
2B - Eugenio Canseco (Red Barons) - 5

Season 33 Preview AL West

AL West

Season 32 Standings
Salem Volcanoes 112-50
Anaheim Skywalkers 91-71(Wild Card)
St Louis Arch Angels 77-85
Omaha Oracles 67-95


Once again this was Salems division last season. It was their fifth straight 100+ win season and division title. That is now the longest streak in franchise history. It was also the 13th division title for them. Anaheim continued a playoff streak for this franchise having made 4 in a row now and 9 of the past 11 seasons. Unfortunately, only 3 of those have been division titles. The franchise in St Louis, has now moved to Boise and they missed the post season for the fourth straight time. It's hard to believe, but it has now been 10 seasons since they won the World Series. Omaha finished in last for the second consecutive season. It has now been 17 seasons since they last won the division title.


Salem Volcanoes
owner-jkenned(11th season)
Last 5 seasons- 555-255

Goals
107 wins

My take
We are now well into the season so this isn't really a preview. Salem is looking like they are well on their way to 107 wins. This team has a solid offense, great pitching and phenomenal defense. All of the makings of another 100+ win season.


OFFENSE- B
DEFENSE- C
PITCHING- A


Anaheim Skywalkers
owner-mysticrain(2nd season)
Last 5 seasons- 446-364


My take
Offensively this team is average or just below average. They have players that will get on base, but outside of Willie Tarasco they don't have much of a power threat. I really like the rotation and the bullpen. This team won't give up a lot of runs this season which will help keep them in games. The defense is going to hurt them though. I really don't like the defense and I think it will hurt the great pitching they have.


OFFENSE- C
DEFENSE- D
PITCHING- A


Boise Coursers
owner-godao(1st season)
Last 5 seasons- 403-407

Goals
1-Play at least close to .500 ball
2-Make the most out of my 1st round picks(#18, #24 and a top 50 comp pick so far) despite the budget limitations of the 1st season
3-Finding a useful IFA or two

My take
1-At the time of this writing they are playing close to 500 ball. They look like a really average team and will likely stay close to that this season. They lack depth and an injury could hurt those chances.
2-I hate the 1st season budget limits. Especially with the changes they've made to the game. This is unrealistic and should be changed. Actually, you should be able to set your budget however you want every season. I've still seen teams make good picks with the limitations, but I've also seen teams get screwed over by it.
3-This ties in with the budget problems. Especially with the changes. The wide range of ratings we are now seeing is going to really hurt teams in IFA signings. Maybe people won't overspend knowing that they aren't likely seeing the player correctly. Doubt it.


What to look for
1-How much the change from a pitchers park to a hitters park will affect the team's power-hitter and how far can they carry the team.
2-Can the bullpen overcome the loss of closer Phil Linton
3-Can the rotation at least keep the team in games

My take
1-This team does have some solid power. While Boise is a hitters park, it's not a big time hitters park. I think the team is more geared toward this kind of park and should excel with it.
2-Losing Linton is big. The bullpen doesn't have much else. While it's not a bad bullpen, it's also not one of the better pens in the league. This is a big loss.
3-The rotation really lacks an ace and they are below average at best. I think this is a weakness.

Differences from last season
1-The owner and the ballpark
2-The main losses are closer Phil Linton, CF Enny Tejera and LF Miller Hunter
3-The main additions are Tomas Osoria, Eugene Harvey and 2B Victor Callaspo

My take
1-A new owner will give this franchise a fresh start. The previous owner was a good one, but I don't think he had the patience to wait for the team to make it back to the top.
2-These are some big losses, but the team wasn't a threat with them, so they won't miss them too much.
3-These aren't huge additions but I do like Harvey. He's some nice offense for them.

OFFENSE- B
DEFENSE- B-
PITCHING- C-


Omaha Oracles
owner-npbed(2nd season)
Last 5 seasons- 404-406

My take
Offensively this team has a little bit of power and some players that can get on base. They aren't great hitters though and could use more contact. The starting rotation isn't very good and is going to hurt them this season. The bullpen is better and they have a really good reliever in Dillon Abbott. The bullpen is a strength for them. The defense is solid with decent depth. They could use more range, but the gloves will keep them from giving up extra runs.


OFFENSE- C+
DEFENSE- B
PITCHING- C-


Predictions
Salem is the clear favorite. I don't see a way they are beat out in this division. They are a possible favorite for the AL title as well. Anaheim has the pitching, but not much else. In a division that will be tight from 2-4 their weaknesses may hurt them. Boise looks like the best of the bottom 3. They are an above average team that doesn't excel at anything. They do have a weakness in pitching though. The same could be said about Omaha.

1. Salem
2. Boise
3. Anaheim
4. Omaha

Season 33 AL North Preview

AL North

Season 32 Standings
Milwaukee Magnitude 102-60
Kansas City Yardbirds 71-91
Dover Dinklebergs 70-92
New York Damage Controllers 68-94


The Magnitude won their 4th straight division title last season, which was also just the 4th title in franchise history. In each of the past 5 seasons they have increased their win total as well. The Yardbirds finished in a distant second place and have now missed the playoffs for the past 10 seasons. Dover finished third and improved by 9 games from the previous season while missing the playoffs for the 4th time in a row. That comes after winning the division 7 straight seasons. New York finished last and they have now gone 15 seasons without a post season berth. They have gone the longest of any team in this division since their last division title all the way back in season 10.



Milwaukee Magnitude
owner-horvie78(8th season)
Last 5 seasons- 441-369

Goals
95+ wins
Winning another division title
Getting hot in the post season

My take
95 wins are within reach for this team. They have the hitting and pitching to get that done. Winning the division should be a possibility with that many wins since all of the other teams were well behind them last season. A big part of the getting hot in the post season has to do with having a few dominant starting pitchers. This team has 3 pitchers that can start and be dominant, but all 3 of them lack really good stamina. That means the bullpen has to be really good. The team has a really solid bullpen so I don't think that will be a problem.


What to look for
Lack of range in the infield being a problem
Players that had outstanding seasons not being able to repeat those outputs

My take
Pellow has the glove and arm to play shortstop, but his range is not very good. The have the same problem with Zip Sullivan at 2B. I like a lot more range at 2B than what he has to offer. That will allow a lot of balls to get through that otherwise wouldn't. This could really hurt them this season.

The player that sticks out as having an over achieving season was Buddy Berry. I just don't see how it's possible for him to repeat his output from last season.


Differences from last season
Josh Kirkland replaces Tomas Osoria in CF
Ignacio Torres and Darren Banks replace Bucky Simpson and Jed Carter on the pitching staff


My take
Kirkland adds more defense over Osoria but he's not going to hit as well. I prefer defense in centerfield so this is an upgrade.

Torres is a solid starter and Banks is good but lacks stamina. The big problem here is that Jed Carter was a great bullpen arm and neither of those pitchers will replace what he gave the team.


OFFENSE- B
DEFENSE- B-
PITCHING- B+



Kansas City Yardbirds
owner-holleybard(7th season)
Last 5 seasons- 366-444


My take
This team is close to competing. They have the defense and offense to get it done. On offense they have a nice mix of power and getting on base. The defense is solid all around. The pitching staff is rough though. The bullpen has a couple decent arms, but the rotation is not very good. The only thing bringing them up to a D+ is that the pitching staff is loaded with pitchers that have good control. Less walks will be a plus for this staff.


OFFENSE- B
DEFENSE- A
PITCHING- D+



Dover Dinklebergs
owner-tmfran(16th season)
Last 5 seasons- 350-460


My take
Dover is a bit below average offensively. Joakim Valbuena is a great hitter, but this team doesn't have a whole lot of talent. On defense they have a gold glove caliber shortstop in Cam House. The team is really loaded with the gloves. The pitching staff isn't very strong. The rotation lacks top end starters, but they do have quite a few mid to back end talent. The bullpen isn't very good. The staff control is also something to be concerned with.


OFFENSE- C-
DEFENSE- A
PITCHING- D+



New York Damage Controllers
owner-skuff730(14th season)
Last 5 seasons- 377-433


My take
This team is going to struggle this season. They have very little talent in all 3 areas of the game. The good thing for this team is that they have some solid prospects in the minors and could be competing again in the near future. It just doesn't look like that will be this season. I think they might be a favorite to get the first pick in next seasons draft.


OFFENSE- C-
DEFENSE- D
PITCHING- C-


Predictions
I think this will be Milwaukee's division to lose again this season. None of the other teams are comparable in talent. Kansas City might give them a run and make things interesting, but in the end they won't have enough pitching to even make the playoffs. Dover looks like they might be even farther back from the top than KC. I'm not sure they can win 70 games this season. New York is a team rebuilding and are looking like they will be pretty bad this season.

1. Milwaukee

2. Kansas City

3. Dover

4. New York