How Exp PCT is calculated:
Exp PCT is a sabermetric statistic called "Pythagorean Expectation", which uses runs scored and runs allowed to estimate the number of games a team should have won. It was originally invented by Bill James and then made more effective by a few other statisticians. The formula is very similar to the Pythagorean Theorem. Did you know that there are over 100 proofs of the Pythagorean Theorem, and one of those was first proved by former president James Garfield?
Original Formula: # of Wins = RS^2/(RS^2 + RA^2), which simplifies to 1/[1+(RA/RS)^2]
RA = Runs Allowed
RS = Runs Scored
^2 = raised to the second power
Statisticians upgraded the formula by coming up with a calculation for the exponent, so that it is not always a constant value of 2. This adjusts the Pythagorean Expectation formula for teams that consistently compete in low-scoring or high-scoring games.
Exponent = [(RS + RA)/G]^0.287
G = Games Played
Example: Let's use our commish and calculate the Seattle Strikers' expected winning percentage during Season 25 (they finished the season with 72 actual wins). Data: RS = 604, RA = 704.
-Step 1: calculate the exponent: [(604 + 704)/162]^0.287, which ends up being 1.82.
-Step 2: use the original formula with Seattle's exponent: 1/[1+(704/604)^1.82].
The results say that Seattle should have had a winning percentage of .431. Multiply this exponent by 162 games and Seattle should have won about 70 games, so they actually finished the season with 2 more wins than expected!
2013 MLB Data
In terms of the 2013 MLB playoff qualifiers, there would have only been a few minor changes if teams won games according to the Pythagorean Expectation formula.
Actual AL Playoffs (wins): Expected AL Playoffs (wins):
1. Boston (97) 1. Boston (101)
2. Oakland (96) 2. Detroit (99)
3. Detroit (93) 3. Oakland (96)
WC1. Cleveland (92) WC1. Texas (91)
WC2. Tampa Bay (92) WC2. Cleveland (90)
(Tampa beat Texas in tie-break game)
In the American League, Detroit would have had homefield advantage for their series vs. Oakland, but that wouldn't have mattered as Detroit ended up winning game 5 on the road. Tampa Bay would have been out of the playoffs, as their expected number of wins was only 87. If you remember, Tampa defeated Texas in a tie-break game and then beat Cleveland in the one-game wildcard playoff. With Tampa out, Cleveland would have traveled to Texas for the wildcard game (Cleveland was 5-1 against Texas in the regular season). Had Texas won the wildcard game, they were 4-2 vs. Boston during the regular season, while Cleveland lost 6 out of 7 games to Boston.
Actual NL Playoffs (wins): Expected NL Playoffs (wins):
1. St. Louis (97) 1. St. Louis (101)
2. Atlanta (96) 2. Atlanta (97)
3. LA Dodgers (92) 3. LA Dodgers (89)
WC1. Pittsburgh (94) WC1. Cincinnati (93)
WC2. Cincinnati (90) WC2. Pittsburgh (88)
The only change in the National League would have been the venue for the wildcard playoff. The Pittsburgh fans were pumped up for their first playoff game in 21 years, and that enthusiasm led to a 6-2 win over the Reds to advance. Expected winning percentage says that Cincinnati should have hosted, and Cincy had a 49-31 record at home during the regular season. Had Cincy won, they were only 8-11 vs. St. Louis during the regular season, so the NLCS probably would have remained the same.
Luckiest 2013 MLB Teams: Un-luckiest 2013 MLB Teams:
1. Philadelphia +7.1 wins above actual 1. Detroit -6.1 wins below actual
2. NY Yankees +6.4 2. Houston -5.7
3. Pittsburgh +6.2 3. Chi Cubs -5.1
4. Tampa Bay +5.0 4. Chi White Sox -4.1
5. San Diego +4.2 5. St. Louis -4.0
Two of the MLB's "luckiest" teams made the playoffs (Pittsburgh & Tampa Bay). It's difficult to call Philadelphia lucky when they had a 73-win season. Had Philly won their expected 66 games, they would have the 4th or 5th pick in the draft. Of the "un-luckiest" teams, two had outstanding seasons. St. Louis advanced to the World Series and Detroit lost to the eventual champs in the ALCS. Fans of the other three teams would probably use more obscene words than unlucky to describe their 2013 seasons. The entire city of Chicago had an unlucky season...even worse when you add in the Packers' 48-yard touchdown on 4th & 8 with 38 seconds left in Week 17 to clinch the NFC North over the Bears...at least we have the Blackhawks!
Pine Tar Season 25 Data:
*=team did not actually make S25 playoffs
Actual AL Playoffs (wins): Expected AL Playoffs (wins):
1. Boston (101) - WS Champs 1. Boston (105)
2. Dover (98) 2. Los Angeles (95.4)*
3. St. Louis (89) 3. Dover (94.9)
4. Tampa Bay (87) 4. New Orleans (86.3)*
WC1. Durham (97) WC1. Durham (101)
WC2. Vancouver (88) WC2. Vancouver (91)
Actual NL Playoffs (wins): Expected NL Playoffs (wins):
1. Houston (106) 1. Houston (105)
2. Colorado Springs (98) - NL Champs 2. Colorado Springs (96)
3. Iowa City (94) 3. Fargo (93)
4. Jacksonville (85) 4. Jacksonville (92)
WC1. Fargo (87) WC1. Iowa City (91)
WC2. Montreal (86) WC2. Cincinnati (87)*
If the playoffs were formed according to the Exp Win statistic, three teams would have qualified who were actually left out. The Los Angeles Regulators (S25's un-luckiest team...see below) would have earned a first round bye with the #2 seed, when in reality they fell one win short of capturing a playoff spot. Also in the American League, the New Orleans Zephyrs would have won the AL South by edging out Tampa Bay (85.9 expected wins). In the NL, the Fargo Wood Chippers (ranked the 3rd un-luckiest team) would win the North and switch playoff seeds with Iowa City. Finally, the Cincinnati Firestorm would have snuck into the playoffs as the #6 seed instead of Montreal (82.8 expected wins). I cannot analyze any further than this, as I was not around last season and could not find a way to look up season series results. Below are the luckiest and un-luckiest teams from Season 25...although the owners of the luckiest teams would probably not call their teams lucky, as none made the playoffs and three of the five finished last in their respective division.
Luckiest S25 Teams: Un-luckiest S25 Teams:
1. Kansas City +9 wins above actual 1. Los Angeles -8 wins below actual
2. Milwaukee +8 1. Jackson -8
3. Philadelphia +7 3. Fargo -6
4. Wichita +4 4. Rochester -5
4. Nashville +4 4. Cincinnati -5
4. Albuquerque -5
Season 26: And Pine Tar's Luckiest Owner is...
We are currently about one-third of the way through season 26, as we have played 56 games.
There is a tie for the "luckiest owner" between jbburner (Cincinnati) and italianajt (Kansas City), as they both have 5 wins over their expected win total. Cincinnati has a record of 26-30. The Exp PCT predicts a total of 21 wins, as they have been outscored by a 218-281 margin. Kansas City has won 23 games instead of their expected total of 18, and have been outscored 225-334. A significant reason would be that these teams have a combined record of 18-12 in one-run games. The runner-ups for luckiest owner are tmfran (Dover), tk21775 (Iowa City), and erichanville (Texas), who all have 4 wins above the expected total.
Pine Tar's "un-luckiest owner" during the current season is arfy (Louisville), who currently has a record of 26-30. With 298 runs scored and 249 runs allowed, the Exp PCT statistic says that Louisville should be 33-23, which would give them a 3-game lead in the NL South. Louisville is an unfortunate 5-15 in one-run games. Another factor increasing Louisville's Exp PCT is the fact that of their 26 wins, almost half (12) were won by 6 runs or more. Additional "un-lucky" owners this season include jkenned of Salem (6 wins below the expected total) and bagwellbuff of Houston (-5 wins).
Below is the Season 26 Exp PCT data, which was calculated using an excel spreadsheet. Underlining is used to separate divisions.
| Team | Owner | W/L | RS | RA | Exponent | Exp PCT | Exp Wins | W Difference |
| New York | skuff730 * | 36-20 | 362 | 273 | 2.01 | 0.638 | 36 | 0 |
| Dover | tmfran * | 34-22 | 287 | 263 | 1.93 | 0.542 | 30 | 4 |
| Kansas City | italianajt | 23-33 | 225 | 334 | 1.94 | 0.318 | 18 | 5 |
| Milwaukee | horvie78 * | 22-34 | 227 | 279 | 1.88 | 0.404 | 23 | -1 |
| Rochester | wylie715 | 35-21 | 311 | 211 | 1.90 | 0.676 | 38 | -3 |
| Boston | kjmulli * | 30-26 | 278 | 233 | 1.89 | 0.583 | 33 | -3 |
| Durham | alogman1 | 29-27 | 311 | 293 | 1.98 | 0.529 | 30 | -1 |
| Indianapolis | qtip32 | 17-39 | 236 | 320 | 1.93 | 0.357 | 20 | -3 |
| Tampa Bay | rxw1 | 31-25 | 305 | 280 | 1.96 | 0.542 | 30 | 1 |
| San Juan | soxfan_9 | 27-29 | 246 | 291 | 1.91 | 0.420 | 24 | 3 |
| New Orleans | Fantasy Frea | 27-29 | 322 | 322 | 2.02 | 0.500 | 28 | -1 |
| Nashville | bnags * | 21-35 | 283 | 378 | 2.03 | 0.357 | 20 | 1 |
| St. Louis | Flucie | 32-24 | 286 | 252 | 1.91 | 0.560 | 31 | 1 |
| Fresno | bobswagger91 | 29-27 | 288 | 288 | 1.95 | 0.500 | 28 | 1 |
| Vancouver | skplayer07 | 29-27 | 283 | 268 | 1.93 | 0.526 | 29 | 0 |
| Salem | jkenned * | 26-30 | 253 | 218 | 1.84 | 0.568 | 32 | -6 |
| Helena | pinetaar | 34-22 | 268 | 220 | 1.86 | 0.591 | 33 | 1 |
| Iowa City | tk21775 * | 32-24 | 229 | 228 | 1.83 | 0.502 | 28 | 4 |
| Scranton | reggie988 | 30-26 | 279 | 248 | 1.90 | 0.556 | 31 | -1 |
| Fargo | Starbuckdc | 29-27 | 289 | 269 | 1.93 | 0.535 | 30 | -1 |
| Jacksonville | greygoose123 * | 36-20 | 305 | 252 | 1.93 | 0.591 | 33 | 3 |
| Philadelphia | Phillies26 | 31-25 | 255 | 253 | 1.88 | 0.504 | 28 | 3 |
| Cincinnati | jbburner * | 26-30 | 218 | 281 | 1.87 | 0.383 | 21 | 5 |
| Wichita | jibe * | 20-36 | 229 | 287 | 1.89 | 0.395 | 22 | -2 |
| Texas | erichanville | 30-26 | 232 | 253 | 1.86 | 0.460 | 26 | 4 |
| Houston | bagwellbuff | 26-30 | 272 | 240 | 1.89 | 0.559 | 31 | -5 |
| Louisville | Arfy * | 26-30 | 298 | 249 | 1.92 | 0.586 | 33 | -7 |
| Jackson | bobbyj7 | 25-31 | 229 | 252 | 1.85 | 0.456 | 26 | -1 |
| Colorado Springs | toe64 * | 39-17 | 361 | 251 | 1.99 | 0.673 | 38 | 1 |
| Oklahoma City | brentcnb * | 22-34 | 208 | 266 | 1.85 | 0.388 | 22 | 0 |
| Albuquerque | csudak | 21-35 | 285 | 355 | 2.01 | 0.391 | 22 | -1 |
| Seattle | ghutton9 | 21-35 | 196 | 249 | 1.81 | 0.393 | 22 | -1 |
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