Scranton and owner
reggie988 dominated the NL North, winning 102 games and securing their third straight
division title. The Red Barons fell one game short of making a return
trip to the World Series, as they lost to Albuquerque in game 7 of the NLCS.
Iowa City and Fargo tied for second place, but finished 29 games behind
first place Scranton. Hawkeyes’ owner
tk21775 traded away some offensive stars for prospects and ended the season
with 12 fewer wins than in Season 29. Fargo
moved to Minnesota, where first-year owner ranscott64 hopes to get the Huskies’
franchise on the right track after two years of rebuilding. Helena finished in fourth place and is openly
rebuilding, as owner pinetaar dealt a bunch of high-priced talent during the
offseason.
Helena Copper Kings
(pinetaar - 5th season)
Payroll: 39.8M
Draft Pick: #5
Season 30 Record: 67-95 (4th
place)
S30 Runs Scored
|
S30 Team ERA
|
S30 Fielding Percentage
|
705 (8th in NL)
|
5.04 (16th in NL)
|
.980 (14th in NL)
|
Offense: Expect the Helena offense to go from average
to one of the worst in the league with the losses of Benito Rodriguez, J.A.
Stanley, and Alex Suzuki. Bengie Romano (.267
BA, 53 RBI, 27 SB) has a nice blend of contact and speed, and Ian Langston (.286
BA, 22 HR, 58 RBI) should drive in some runs. However, the Copper Kings need much more to
be competitive. Keep an eye on the
following AAA players, who could contribute if they get promoted: Vin Volquez, Matthew
Rivera, and Mike Lawson.
Pitching: The Copper
Kings should again see themselves near the bottom of the league in pitching,
after finishing dead last in Season 30.
The starting rotation will struggle, led by veteran Miguel Rivera (3.96
ERA, 1.24 WHIP), who might be better suited for the bullpen with his stamina. The bullpen has a couple of promising
youngsters in Rigo Jimenez (3.87 ERA, 20 saves) and Luigi Duran (3.69 ERA), but
could use a few more solid arms in order to preserve leads.
Fielding: Helena’s
middle-infield is decent as Bengie Romano is one of the best 2B in the
league. Jerry Greenwood will hold his
own at SS, although his arm strength could be a deficiency. The Copper Kings lack a true CF and have an
average catcher in Delino Fuentes (31% CS).
I predict that they will rank below average, but not bottom of the
league like last season.
Iowa City Hawkeyes
(tk21775 - 16th season)
Payroll: 48.0M
Draft Pick: #14
Season 30 Record: 73-89 (tied 2nd place)
S30 Runs Scored
|
S30 Team ERA
|
S30 Fielding Percentage
|
529 (16th in NL)
|
3.39 (2nd in NL)
|
.989 (1st in NL)
|
Offense: Iowa City looks to improve upon a
ranking of dead last in runs scored during the previous season. The Hawkeyes return Alexei Marrero (.380 OBP,
27 HR, 72 RBI) and Max Barrios (.298 BA, 20 HR, 84 RBI), who should be their
top offensive threats. They also acquired
contact-hitter Elroy Epstein (Cincinnati) and power-hitter Eugene Harvey (Scranton)
in the off-season. Iowa City should have
an improved offense, but still slightly below average in my opinion.
Pitching: Iowa City has
definitely played to their ballpark, as pitching was once again a major
strength last season. The rotation
should be above average with 4 dependable starters, including Sean Shipley
(2.98 ERA, 129 career wins). The bullpen
currently consists of zero players with major league experience, so I’m not
sure what tk21775 is planning. Look for AAA
relief prospect Junior Martin to be a star when he gets called up to the
bigs. I expect the pitching to drop to
average, due to the bullpen.
Fielding: The Hawkeyes
led the NL in fielding percentage last year, and should be near the top again
this season. Cam House (21 plus plays) finally
got recognition for being one of the best shortstops in the league with his
first gold glove award. Iowa City
returns its catching duo, who threw out 41% of base stealers last season. I only see slight deficiencies in range at CF
and 2B. Overall, this should be a solid
defensive team.
Minnesota Huskies (ranscott64
– 1st season)
Payroll: 62.2M
Draft Pick: #13
Season 30 Record: 73-89 (tied 2nd place)
S30 Runs Scored
|
S30 Team ERA
|
S30 Fielding Percentage
|
639 (13th in NL)
|
4.29 (11th in NL)
|
.978 (15th in NL)
|
Pitching: The Huskies pitching was below average last season, and could get worse with the trading of
star pitcher Aurelio Ozuna. As a group,
the starters will struggle, as most are bottom-of-rotation guys. Ben May (25 years-old, 13 wins) and Emil
Martin (26 years-old, 3.86 ERA) are exciting young starters who will continue
to receive the opportunity to showcase their skills. The bullpen has a dependable closer in
six-time all-star Rickie Metcalfe (37 saves), but I’m not sure that they have
the setup guys to send the game to Metcalfe with the lead. Overall, I predict that the Minnesota
pitching staff will rank near the bottom of the NL.
Fielding: The Minnesota
defense has the potential to improve upon their low Season 30 ranking, where
they finished 15th in errors and last in plus plays. Jhonny Castro is a good shortstop with great
range, who will make some spectacular plays for the Huskies this season. The catching will be solid, as the duo of
Jonny Lincoln and Shigetoshi nailed 35% of steal attempts last year. The big question will be who plays 2B and
3B? If Lazy Barkley and Darren Hogan are
in the lineup on a daily basis, then I believe that this defense will be
average, if not better.
Scranton Red Barons
(reggie988 - 9th season)
Payroll: 64.7M
Draft Pick: #31
Season 30 Record: 102-60 (1st place – Lost in NLCS)
S30 Runs Scored
|
S30 Team ERA
|
S30 Fielding Percentage
|
851 (2nd in NL)
|
3.49 (3rd in NL)
|
.987 (3rd in NL)
|
Offense: Scranton
should again have one of the best offenses in the league, as they have a successful
blend of hitting and power. The Red
Barons return season 30 MVP Eugenio Canseco (.321 BA, 38 HR, 124 RBI), all-star
selections Jim Hawpe and F.P. Gentry, and ROY runner-up Luis Cruz (.282 BA, 23
HR, 90 RBI). The speed is lacking, but
that didn’t seem to hurt them last season.
Pitching: The Red
Barons have a deep rotation, with three starters returning who had at least 15
wins last season. Gustavo Santos (17-5,
2.49 ERA) has established himself as an effective ace, and finished second in
Cy-Young voting. The bullpen has a
number of strong arms, and should be able to hold leads. Veteran Alberto Blasco was signed in
free-agency to go with Avasail Soto and Mitch Mota (28 saves, 2.34 ERA). Expect Scranton’s pitching to rank near the
top of the league again, where they finished 3rd a season ago.
Fielding: Scranton’s
fielding should be above-average, but not at the top of the NL like last
year. The strength of this team is their
outfield, which lets very few balls drop due to their outstanding range. Gold glove winner Vladimir Toregas (30 plus plays) has also been
great at 3B. The weak spot for the Red
Barons defense is the shortstop position.
They don’t have a true shortstop, and last season Jim Hawpe struggled
with 23 errors and 11 minus plays.
Prediction:
If Las Vegas generated odds
for HBD, then Scranton would be about a 1-10 favorite to win their fourth
consecutive NL North title. The Red
Barons should win the division easily and be able to make a serious run at the
pennant. Scranton should enjoy their
success now, as some of their young stars are about to become very expensive
with arbitration. The remaining three
teams have been rebuilding and are not yet ready to contend. I expect Iowa City to finish second in the
division, and come close to a .500 record.
The Hawkeyes have great defense, respectable pitching, and an improved offense. Minnesota and Helena are in a much deeper
rebuild. Not only will they be in a neck-and-neck
race for last place in the NL North, but also for the #1 overall draft pick. I believe that Minnesota will finish a few
games ahead of Helena, due to slightly better fielding and pitching.
1. Scranton
2. Iowa City
3. Minnesota
4. Helena
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