Friday, December 27, 2013

S25 Sabermetric Stats

I'd first like to add my "getting to know the owners" paragraph:  Matt, age 32, live in the suburbs of Chicago.  I teach high school math and am the head math team coach at my school.  I coached football for 8 years, but that became too time-consuming.  I won GD Survivor 11, thanks to Arfy's alliance turning on him!  Favorite teams: Bears, White Sox, Blackhawks, Bulls, and DePaul basketball.

As you can see, I like numbers, so now it is time for me to turn into Horvie James and calculate some Sabermetric statistics from Season 25 of Pine Tar.  I copy/pasted all season 25 statistics into an excel spreadsheet, wrote a few formulas for the stats, and sorted.  We are going to look at Runs Created, Secondary Average, and Stolen Base Runs Generated.  I'm not going to do any sort of heavy analysis on the stats...will just post and make a few comments/questions on each.  If you would like to investigate further or add your opinions on these statistics, feel free to do so in the comment section of the blog.

Runs Created (Top 25 from Season 25): estimates the number of runs a batter contributes to his team by combining on-base percentage and total bases.  Formula = OBP x TB.

Team Player Runs Created RBIs
1 Dover Armando Mota 143.172 127
2 Bos Matt Jaha 135.864 102
3 Bos Mateo Nunez 135.786 97
4 Durham Eric Lindsey 135.34 108
5 TB Rico Tatis 134.689 130
6 Durham Julio Navarro 129.97 88
7 Rochest Russell Powell 129.792 101
8 Fargo Tony Caballero 129.618 133
9 St. Lou Calvin Pecina 129.336 119
10 Durham Bengie Trajano 128.118 129
11 Sea Benny Navarro 125.296 65
12 Fargo Zip Sullivan 124.214 142
13 Texas Alan Wilson 122.512 76
14 Durham Billy Haynes 122.4 117
15 Durham Fred Inge 120.472 106
16 Col Spr Pedro Reyes 120.357 128
17 Philly Alex Velez 117.585 116
18 NO Sam Slotnick 116.61 111
19 Scranton Benito Rodriguez 116.184 84
20 Dover Kenneth Cedeno 115.456 120
21 Helena Jim Hawpe 112.582 81
22 Lou Vic Rijo 110.088 88
23 Alb Bert Heiserman 109.56 116
24 Indy Napoleon Hampton 109.02 95
25 Indy Brian Hume 108.19 95




Observations/Questions for further analysis:
-9 of these players had less than 100 RBIs, but "created" well over 100 runs.
-6 players had fewer Runs Created than RBIs.
-Average salary of the top-5 is $7,345,000.  #1 ranked Armando Mota is currently a free agent!
-Is there a range/formula of specific attributes that will result in players creating a high amount of runs?

Secondary Average (Top 25): evaluates the number of bases gained independent of batting average (through power, plate discipline, and speed).  Formula = [BB + (TB - H) + (SB - CS)]/AB.

Team Player Secondary Avr Batting Avr
1 NY Dam Gus Justice 0.471698113 0.244
2 Milw Vinny Hill 0.464367816 0.315
3 Bos Matt Jaha 0.455284553 0.341
4 Fargo Tony Caballero 0.432574431 0.296
5 Lou Allen Gruber 0.43220339 0.274
6 Sea Benny Navarro 0.428571429 0.286
7 Sea Jo-jo Frandsen 0.422509225 0.288
8 TB Rico Tatis 0.415481833 0.297
9 Helena Rafael Hernandez 0.410029499 0.301
10 OKC Carlos Zorrilla 0.409090909 0.269
11 Durham Eric Lindsey 0.407265774 0.342
12 Fargo Zip Sullivan 0.406451613 0.281
13 Col Spr Pedro Reyes 0.403041825 0.302
14 NO Sam Slotnick 0.401944895 0.277
15 San Juan Charles Yoshii 0.399113082 0.304
16 Alb Bert Heiserman 0.396984925 0.268
17 Scranton Benito Rodriguez 0.396484375 0.314
18 Dover John Pong 0.395789474 0.286
19 NO Samuel Wallace 0.392523364 0.284
20 Col Spr Juan Perez 0.390909091 0.330
21 Rochest Kazuhiro Kuroda 0.388560158 0.290
22 Dover Armando Mota 0.384615385 0.309
23 Texas Alan Wilson 0.380097879 0.297
24 San Juan John Davidson 0.375238095 0.291
25 Bos Mateo Nunez 0.372191011 0.305

Observations/Questions for further analysis:
-Only 5 of these players had a batting average below .280.
-The #1 ranked player (Gus Justice) actually had the lowest batting average of the top-25 at .244, but does have an overall rating of 89 and earn a salary of 9,250,000.
-Three of the top-5 ranked players have an overall rating of 76 or below (Vinny Hill, Matt Jaha, Allen Gruber).  Are these 3 and other players with high secondary averages considered "steals"?

Stolen Base Runs (Top 15): estimates the impact of base-stealers, as studies have shown that each successful steal adds about .3 runs to a team's total runs scored.  Formula = (.3 x SB) - (.6 x CS).

Team Player SB Runs
1 Jackson Edgardo Mijares 15.6
2 Dover Brent Summers 15.6
3 Sea Clyde Nathan 14.1
4 Lou Alex Lyons 12
5 Bos Mateo Nunez 11.7
6 Scranton Raymond Petrov 11.1
7 NO Eduardo Tabata 11.1
8 NY Dam Gus Justice 10.8
9 Hou Ugueth Gonzales 10.8
10 Bos Greg Parrott 8.7
11 Sea Jo-jo Frandsen 7.2
12 OKC Bernie Butler 7.2
13 St. Lou O.T. Harper 7.2
14 Lou Tony Franco 6.9
15 Fresno Del Broome 6.9

Observations/Questions for further analysis:
-It would be interesting to see if all of these players have an extremely high baserunning rating.  Mijares and Summers have 86 and 87 ratings, respectively.
-The numbers in this statistic are lower than I expected.  How important do you factor speed when evaluating your offense?