Fargo Wood Chippers
Fargo runs like a well-oiled machine. They are the only franchise to win their division in every year of the league's existence, and they have failed to win fewer than 100 games only 3 times (and fewer than 98 games only once). As such, it's no surprise that year in and year out, they make shrewd moves throughout the offseason to keep their team at the top. Their GM has publicly stated this year that "they had better win the series this year because I don't like playing golf with domi. He plays by 'Winter rules.'" Ouch. Fortunately for the Chips, their World Series aspirations are not without merit. They saw no major free agency departures this year, though they did deal Desi Fernandez and John Li to Toledo for superstar catching prospect Pablo Maduro (just another example of this Hall Of Fame ownership team striking while the iron is hot). But other than that, last year's 101-61 team is coming back to the party, with many of their young players like Tony Guerrero, Al Nen, Karim Ontiveros, and Roland Sweeney getting a year older (and a year scarier). Other franchises must envy the nonstop train of success that runs through Fargo, but with such an eye for talent, it's hard to see this unstoppable locomotive ever slowing down.
Helena Ass Clowns
What has happened to Helena? Last season, the team went 86-76, missing their annual wild card berth for the first time in 5 years. They know they can't compete with Fargo, but is that any reason to throw in the towel? Apparantly it is, because the Ass Clowns have done little to improve themselves this year, and in fact look poised to either stagnate or backslide. The team allowed former Cy Young winner Carlos Soto and former All-Star Russell Wheeler, two of their best three starting pitchers from last year, to walk, and they've made no attempt to replace them. Hunter Powell and Ruben Mesa have also been let go, but they weren't much to write home about to begin with. Aging reliever Frankie Herman was their only indulgence this offseason. It's not even as if they can use the excuse that last year was a fluke; Buck Leonard hit 43 homers with a .382 OBP, while Willis Walter matched a career high with an .850 OPS; on the pitching side, Wayne Perez had a career year with a 3.14 ERA. It's puzzling to figure out exactly what Helena's game plan is for this season, but if it's to win the division or even contend for a wild card spot, the Ass Clowns will be sorely surprised this year.
Rochester Royals
After eight seasons of losing in Pittsburgh, the Clementes picked up their bags, changed their name to the Royals, and shipped off to Rochester in search of the franchise's first-ever playoff appearance. Unfortunately, they must have forgotten to load several of their good players into the U-Haul van, because the likes of Bob Wood and Einar Tatis seem to be history in Rochester. 2-time Cy Young winner Andre Plesac is also gone and likely headed for retirement if he doesn't get a contract this Spring. Granted, these men were all getting old, but they may have been the best hope this team had for improving upon its 97-loss performance last year. The "youth movement" angle also doesn't work when you consider that their two free agent pickups, Aurelio Rodriguez and Brandon Jacobs, are 31 and 34, respectively. Rodriguez may still have some gas left in the tank, but Jacobs is nearly finished as a hitter and should certainly never suit up as a shortstop again (he seems to be more of a right fielder type now). Otto Plesac was also selected in the Rule 5 draft, but let's face it: Rochester hasn't added any difference makers this year, and at that point, bringing in middling free agents and rule 5 picks is like re-arranging deck chairs on the Titanic. Until Rochester finds a player or two to build around, both on offense and in the rotation, they will never end Fargo's reign in the division.
Trenton Thunders
It's actually a bit surprising that this team fared as poorly as they did last year. Sure, a team OPS of .733 and a team ERA of 4.77 aren't great any any measure, but they don't seem "100 losses" bad. Nevertheless, this franchise finished 62-100 in season 10, and turnover was expected by the fanbase when the franchise was bought by new ownership and moved to beautiful Trenton, NJ. Naturally, the franchise hasn't made one impactful free agent signing this offseason. Veterans Gordon Graves, Toby Thompson, Samuel Hughes, Alejandro Sierra, and Hod Adams are yesterday's news in Trenton, and every last one of their seven free agent signings were 24-year old rookies. Power hitter Desi Molina is comparatively the most talented of the bunch, but Jim Magee, Jalal Mayne, Alvin Mahler, Kurt Aldridge, Rabbit Cox, and Walt Walters would all get cut from the Bad News Bears. Hopefully Chico's Bail Bonds agrees to sponsor Trenton's minor league system, because that's where these guys belong (as filler). The recently promoted Vince Brock may give them a small measure of help offensively, but overall, it'll be news when this team strings 2 wins together this season.
PREDICTION
1. Fargo
2. Helena
3. Rochester
4. Trenton
Interchange numbers 3 and 4 however you wish. Other than that, I'm about as sure of Fargo's 11th-straight 1st place finish as I am about taxes being due in April. Don't be shocked to see the Chips win this one by at least 25 games. And by the looks of things, it'll be a while before they're even really challenged in this division.
Tuesday, March 2, 2010
Monday, March 1, 2010
Season 11 outlook: AL West
Arizona BUTCHERS
While the world was watching the dogfight in the AL North, many missed the equally entertaining scuffle in the Wild West, where three teams finished within four games of each other for the division title. Arizona, a team that had actually gotten worse by 4 wins, managed to take the division title with an 82-80 record, and therein lies how the West was won: there simply isn't an abundance of legitimate competition. The BUTCHERS sought to change that this winter, however, with several moves designed to make them into a more legitimate playoff contender... at least for this year. If I asked you what Bob Wood, Ewell Thompson, Jonathan Pillette, Russell Saunders, and Bobby Ray Karnuth, all had in common, you'd probably respond that they'll all be eligible for AARP soon, and you'd be right. But this geriatric crew is also the bulk of this offseason's free agency haul for Arizona. Ok, so they only got Spring Training invitations (with the exception of Wood, who got a 1-year deal), but it does seem a bit alarming that the BUTCHERS will be relying on this crew to add wins to their record this season. Arizona did make a solid signing with 26-year old Jesse Guerrero, but it seems obvious that Arizona will seek to improve through their major promotions this year, namely 21-year old catcher Tony Olmeda and masher Antonio Mota (whose minor league success they hope will translate to the majors). They should improve upon their win total from last season, but even if they do win the division, the question is still whether this crew can win a playoff series once they make it there, and the prospect still doesn't look great this year.
Oakland Raiders
In their last season in Sin City, this franchise was in first place for much of last year before falling behind and missing their first playoff berth in 6 years by one game after their pitching staff crumbled and dropped 7 of their last 10. Outraged, the owners fired the general manager and moved the team to Oakland, seeking a fresh start. New management took little time making changes, and the overhaul that this team has gone through over the past several months is quite evident. The new GM has said publicly that he has a plan for his pitching staff, and all those who don't fit that plan have been jettisoned; that includes 4-time All-Star Darryl Michaels, who Oakland may have felt has gotten old quickly. A couple dead-weight position players, like part-timer Bernard Dickson, were released as well. After that, the Raiders began to load up on new faces for the upcoming season. They made big waves in the free agent market, signing former All-Star Hugh Hudson to a bigtime deal, as well as relievers Domingo Calvo and Felix Vanguri. Re-signing Sammy Lee and Andrew Page helped them retain some dependable pitchers as well. Alfredo Kelly and Curt Dresden should also be solid additions on the offensive side that were nabbed up in free agency. But the Raiders' biggest move was a trade that proved highly controversial within the Oakland ranks (and had one coach nearly threatening to resign): a deal that sent young first baseman John Wolf to Syracuse in exchange for Daryle Moran and Chris Damon (a deal that looks like it could end up being a huge boost for Oakland, given their lack of depth at those positions last season). They also dealt catcher Tom Gonzales for more pitching help in rookie Danny Koch, but then strangely turned around and dealt two young pieces in Orber Torres and Felipe Rosario as well. Overall, Oakland seems to have made all the right moves this offseason to at least improve upon last year's record (and help stave off another end-of-the-season collapse). They, like Arizona, will likely improve this season, and fans and management alike are looking forward to the opportunity to win a division title in their first season in Oakland, but given that they've declined to make the big moves necessary to truly transform into a top team, their prospects for a playoff appearance still seem unclear.
Honolulu Warriors
Last season, the Honolulu Aloha managed a respectable but inadequate 78-84 wins as one of the more milquetoast teams in the league. This year, the team has attempted to undergo a transofmration of attitude, changing their name to the Warriors to signal a new era in Honolulu baseball. Unfortunately, a transformation of roster would have been more appropriate, as a few key moves would have easily nudged this team into playoff territory. Instead, Honolulu's biggest moves were departures, with several major leaguers from last year leaving for free agency, key among them being 2-time Silver Slugger Hack Rucker, former All-Star and Gold Glover Harry Flores, and former MVP and 4-time All-Star Lawrence Butler. Former Gold Glove 2B Glenn Mack, who barely played last season, also got the boot when he was released this winter. Following those moves, Honolulu brought in, presumably, the one man they felt could bring back all the offense lost by that flurry of departures... Emilio Johnson, a rookie catcher and former 4th-round pick who has been in the minors for 6 years. Let's just say this division might be a 2-horse race this year...
Fresno Grab Yo Socks
When Alex Guerrero and the new Fresno management got into their legendary tussle this winter that ended with Guerrero being released on the spot during his arbitration hearing, many fans thought that this would be just another year of woeful baseball from a suddenly woeful franchise. But of all the teams in the American League who have attempted to rebuild this offseason after a disastrous Season 10, Fresno has probably been the most successful. Mediocre players like Stuffy Lindsey, Russ Barker, John Moran, and John Becker were given their walking papers; not atrocious players, to be sure, but bad enough that the new Fresno ownership decided to replace them with players that actually gave them a chance to get to the next level. In all, Fresno signed eight free agents to help them, including 4-time All-Star slugger Bill Maurer, 3-time All-Star SS Donnie Wells, 2-time All-Star Jesus Roque, 2-time Silver Slugger Hack Rucker, decent SP Kevin Xaio, solid #5 starter Gordon Graves, high-OBP 1B Stewart Bryant, and patchwork long reliever Dorian Meyers. All of these free agents will serve a purpose on a team riddled with holes after last year's 67-95 fiasco. Ace Felix Wilson was also dealt away, but Fresno got stud relievers Chick Linden and Chili Mussina to make up for the loss. Fresno may not be the powerhouse that this team used to be when it was in St. Louis-- the pitching is simply not there-- but I will eat my hat if this franchise manages to lose 95 games again this year. And it won't.
PREDICTION
1. Oakland
2. Arizona
3. Fresno
4. Honolulu
One note about this prediction: while I am not bold enough to predict as much outright, I would not be at all shocked to see Fresno sneak into the #2 slot by the season's end as their fortunes rise with so many new faces on the roster. The top 3 teams in this division have made both good and bad moves, leaving me to wonder which ones will work out best for the respective teams involved. This is probably the most difficult division in the AL to predict, and possibly in all of baseball. One thing I will say, however, is that I am fairly confident in Honolulu's 4th place finish, as they failed to make a single improvement after overachieving mightily last year.
While the world was watching the dogfight in the AL North, many missed the equally entertaining scuffle in the Wild West, where three teams finished within four games of each other for the division title. Arizona, a team that had actually gotten worse by 4 wins, managed to take the division title with an 82-80 record, and therein lies how the West was won: there simply isn't an abundance of legitimate competition. The BUTCHERS sought to change that this winter, however, with several moves designed to make them into a more legitimate playoff contender... at least for this year. If I asked you what Bob Wood, Ewell Thompson, Jonathan Pillette, Russell Saunders, and Bobby Ray Karnuth, all had in common, you'd probably respond that they'll all be eligible for AARP soon, and you'd be right. But this geriatric crew is also the bulk of this offseason's free agency haul for Arizona. Ok, so they only got Spring Training invitations (with the exception of Wood, who got a 1-year deal), but it does seem a bit alarming that the BUTCHERS will be relying on this crew to add wins to their record this season. Arizona did make a solid signing with 26-year old Jesse Guerrero, but it seems obvious that Arizona will seek to improve through their major promotions this year, namely 21-year old catcher Tony Olmeda and masher Antonio Mota (whose minor league success they hope will translate to the majors). They should improve upon their win total from last season, but even if they do win the division, the question is still whether this crew can win a playoff series once they make it there, and the prospect still doesn't look great this year.
Oakland Raiders
In their last season in Sin City, this franchise was in first place for much of last year before falling behind and missing their first playoff berth in 6 years by one game after their pitching staff crumbled and dropped 7 of their last 10. Outraged, the owners fired the general manager and moved the team to Oakland, seeking a fresh start. New management took little time making changes, and the overhaul that this team has gone through over the past several months is quite evident. The new GM has said publicly that he has a plan for his pitching staff, and all those who don't fit that plan have been jettisoned; that includes 4-time All-Star Darryl Michaels, who Oakland may have felt has gotten old quickly. A couple dead-weight position players, like part-timer Bernard Dickson, were released as well. After that, the Raiders began to load up on new faces for the upcoming season. They made big waves in the free agent market, signing former All-Star Hugh Hudson to a bigtime deal, as well as relievers Domingo Calvo and Felix Vanguri. Re-signing Sammy Lee and Andrew Page helped them retain some dependable pitchers as well. Alfredo Kelly and Curt Dresden should also be solid additions on the offensive side that were nabbed up in free agency. But the Raiders' biggest move was a trade that proved highly controversial within the Oakland ranks (and had one coach nearly threatening to resign): a deal that sent young first baseman John Wolf to Syracuse in exchange for Daryle Moran and Chris Damon (a deal that looks like it could end up being a huge boost for Oakland, given their lack of depth at those positions last season). They also dealt catcher Tom Gonzales for more pitching help in rookie Danny Koch, but then strangely turned around and dealt two young pieces in Orber Torres and Felipe Rosario as well. Overall, Oakland seems to have made all the right moves this offseason to at least improve upon last year's record (and help stave off another end-of-the-season collapse). They, like Arizona, will likely improve this season, and fans and management alike are looking forward to the opportunity to win a division title in their first season in Oakland, but given that they've declined to make the big moves necessary to truly transform into a top team, their prospects for a playoff appearance still seem unclear.
Honolulu Warriors
Last season, the Honolulu Aloha managed a respectable but inadequate 78-84 wins as one of the more milquetoast teams in the league. This year, the team has attempted to undergo a transofmration of attitude, changing their name to the Warriors to signal a new era in Honolulu baseball. Unfortunately, a transformation of roster would have been more appropriate, as a few key moves would have easily nudged this team into playoff territory. Instead, Honolulu's biggest moves were departures, with several major leaguers from last year leaving for free agency, key among them being 2-time Silver Slugger Hack Rucker, former All-Star and Gold Glover Harry Flores, and former MVP and 4-time All-Star Lawrence Butler. Former Gold Glove 2B Glenn Mack, who barely played last season, also got the boot when he was released this winter. Following those moves, Honolulu brought in, presumably, the one man they felt could bring back all the offense lost by that flurry of departures... Emilio Johnson, a rookie catcher and former 4th-round pick who has been in the minors for 6 years. Let's just say this division might be a 2-horse race this year...
Fresno Grab Yo Socks
When Alex Guerrero and the new Fresno management got into their legendary tussle this winter that ended with Guerrero being released on the spot during his arbitration hearing, many fans thought that this would be just another year of woeful baseball from a suddenly woeful franchise. But of all the teams in the American League who have attempted to rebuild this offseason after a disastrous Season 10, Fresno has probably been the most successful. Mediocre players like Stuffy Lindsey, Russ Barker, John Moran, and John Becker were given their walking papers; not atrocious players, to be sure, but bad enough that the new Fresno ownership decided to replace them with players that actually gave them a chance to get to the next level. In all, Fresno signed eight free agents to help them, including 4-time All-Star slugger Bill Maurer, 3-time All-Star SS Donnie Wells, 2-time All-Star Jesus Roque, 2-time Silver Slugger Hack Rucker, decent SP Kevin Xaio, solid #5 starter Gordon Graves, high-OBP 1B Stewart Bryant, and patchwork long reliever Dorian Meyers. All of these free agents will serve a purpose on a team riddled with holes after last year's 67-95 fiasco. Ace Felix Wilson was also dealt away, but Fresno got stud relievers Chick Linden and Chili Mussina to make up for the loss. Fresno may not be the powerhouse that this team used to be when it was in St. Louis-- the pitching is simply not there-- but I will eat my hat if this franchise manages to lose 95 games again this year. And it won't.
PREDICTION
1. Oakland
2. Arizona
3. Fresno
4. Honolulu
One note about this prediction: while I am not bold enough to predict as much outright, I would not be at all shocked to see Fresno sneak into the #2 slot by the season's end as their fortunes rise with so many new faces on the roster. The top 3 teams in this division have made both good and bad moves, leaving me to wonder which ones will work out best for the respective teams involved. This is probably the most difficult division in the AL to predict, and possibly in all of baseball. One thing I will say, however, is that I am fairly confident in Honolulu's 4th place finish, as they failed to make a single improvement after overachieving mightily last year.
Season 11 outlook: AL South
Tampa Bay Thunder
Tampa Bay managed to take this division last season with 90 wins, despite stiff competition by an 89-win New Orleans team that was in it until the end. But with 3 straight World Series appearances from seasons 7 through 9, with a win in season 8, it's hard to question the Tampa Bay gameplan, and the Thunder seem to be betting that last year's squad simply underachieved. There have been a few departures: decent players Daniel Porter, Felipe Romero, and Stewart Bryant all departed for free agency, and disastrous pitchers Wilson Thornton and Jimmie Otanez were released. But the Thunder have made a few additions as well, dealing prized prospect Danny Koch for lefty slayer Tom Gonzales and snagging mopup man Paul Glanville in the Rule 5 draft. All told, though, the core of last year's team is still here, and that's what's important; Will McCarthy, Hank Nelson, and Ben Hogg are just a few of the players Tampa is banking on to return to form this year, and if they play to their potential, there's no telling how successful the Thunder could be this year. At the moment, however, Tampa Bay's main focus needs to be winning the division over the Bead Busters (and potentially a breakout Nala Bears team), and one questions whether they've taken appropriate steps to ensure that outcome this season.
New Orleans Bead Busters
New Orleans went 89-73 games last season and missed the wild card by 10 games. They're not stupid; they know that the AL North will more than likely produce both wild card teams again this season, and New Orleans' goal needs to be to overtake Tampa Bay for the division crown. There has been a good deal of turnover this offseason in the Bead Busters' quest to make that happen, most notably the departure of aging former superstar Clayton Kennedy, who has yet to find a home. Hugh Hudson, Turner Spiers, John Huang, Tanner McKinley, and Rich Benoit are among the other faces that won't be seen around New Orleans this year, and many of those departures may constitute addition by subtraction. In terms of addition by addition, the Bead Busters' biggest improvements this year came with their new position players. Justin Johnson, acquired via trade, has the potential to be a difference maker on defense while still providing quality offense. And 6-time All-Star Einar Tatis, signed for a mere $8.4 million over two years, brings an .889 career OPS into the heart of the New Orleans lineup. Bounceback candidate Luis Seguignol was also a shrewd pickup, though the acquisitions of pitchers Carmen Franco and Rico Lee were patchwork moves that show this team still has holes to fill. It does seem to have been a positive offseason for this squad, and it might just be enough to overtake Tampa Bay, but if the Thunder's core players come roaring back this year, New Orleans may regret not investing in more of an eventful offseason. A big comeback year from $19.9 million man Steve Minor, who managed only 21 homers and 15 doubles last year, would also go a very long way toward a division crown.
Nashville Nala Bears
The Nala Bears' local ad slogan says it all: "The Time Is Now." Management truly believes that Nashville will shine this year, and with the team having increased its win totals over the past 3 years, they are certainly moving rapidly in the right direction. This team is a far cry from the ones that lost a combined 335 games from seasons 7 through 9, and they continued to shed reminders of their losing past with the departures of Doug Hall and Ken Abbott this winter. The brightest spots from last year, i.e. the youth, are all returning, and they look to show off their true abilities this year. Ben Morton, in particular, is ready to turn the corner and show that he can carry a franchise with his bat, and Tino House and Wilfredo Aquino will both look to establish themselves with their first full-season campaigns this year. The Nalas made only 3 notable new acquisitions: Rob Michaels (a Gold Glove fielder with a decent bat), Kevin Richardson (a fixer upper in the back of the rotation or long relief) and Junior Lee (a waiver wire pickup likely brought on for his defense). Pitching will be the weakness of this club; Andres Park (he's 28 already?) will be the anchor of the staff, coming off a 4.42 ERA last season, and they will look for rookie Bruce Fuller to contribute, but talent is a bit thin. While reinforcements are coming (and plentiful), the staff will be lacking this season, and that may torpedo the Nalas' playoff hopes before they ever get off the ground. This is undoubtedly a team headed in the right direction, and there is a possibility that they will shock everyone this year with a playoff run, but a run at .500 is more likely. Maybe the time isn't right now, but it's coming... and soon.
El Paso Illegals
There's not much to say about El Paso because, quite frankly, they haven't done much to better their situation this year. They let professional gopherballers Napoleon Kinkade, Benny Velazquez, and Pedro Batista all walk, but they went out and replaced them with the likes of Jaime Paronto (5.91 minor league ERA) and Catfish Rhodes. They signed minor leaguer Bing Maduro, though if he's getting paid more than the mascot, they got ripped off (and I doubt the mascot is making more than $6,000,000 this year). They also overpaid for throwaway Kane Dolan ($5.5 mil this year). I'm surprised the team bothered to show up to spring training following this display of apathy. At least El Paso fans will get to look forward to the draft.
PREDICTION
1. New Orleans
2. Tampa Bay
3. Nashville
4. El Paso
I have a hunch that New Orleans will win the division by a slight margin, just like Tampa did last year. An injury here, a lucky break there, and it could all change, but I don't think either team wins this division by more than 5 games. Nashville believes they have what it takes to compete this year, but with the wild card seeming like a real longshot, they'll have to leapfrog two established teams this season for the division title if they want to get a playoff berth, and it seems unlikely they'll add the 20-or-so wins it will require to make that happen. Fortunately, they'll still finish at least 25 or 30 games ahead of El Paso, who can start booking October vacations right now.
Tampa Bay managed to take this division last season with 90 wins, despite stiff competition by an 89-win New Orleans team that was in it until the end. But with 3 straight World Series appearances from seasons 7 through 9, with a win in season 8, it's hard to question the Tampa Bay gameplan, and the Thunder seem to be betting that last year's squad simply underachieved. There have been a few departures: decent players Daniel Porter, Felipe Romero, and Stewart Bryant all departed for free agency, and disastrous pitchers Wilson Thornton and Jimmie Otanez were released. But the Thunder have made a few additions as well, dealing prized prospect Danny Koch for lefty slayer Tom Gonzales and snagging mopup man Paul Glanville in the Rule 5 draft. All told, though, the core of last year's team is still here, and that's what's important; Will McCarthy, Hank Nelson, and Ben Hogg are just a few of the players Tampa is banking on to return to form this year, and if they play to their potential, there's no telling how successful the Thunder could be this year. At the moment, however, Tampa Bay's main focus needs to be winning the division over the Bead Busters (and potentially a breakout Nala Bears team), and one questions whether they've taken appropriate steps to ensure that outcome this season.
New Orleans Bead Busters
New Orleans went 89-73 games last season and missed the wild card by 10 games. They're not stupid; they know that the AL North will more than likely produce both wild card teams again this season, and New Orleans' goal needs to be to overtake Tampa Bay for the division crown. There has been a good deal of turnover this offseason in the Bead Busters' quest to make that happen, most notably the departure of aging former superstar Clayton Kennedy, who has yet to find a home. Hugh Hudson, Turner Spiers, John Huang, Tanner McKinley, and Rich Benoit are among the other faces that won't be seen around New Orleans this year, and many of those departures may constitute addition by subtraction. In terms of addition by addition, the Bead Busters' biggest improvements this year came with their new position players. Justin Johnson, acquired via trade, has the potential to be a difference maker on defense while still providing quality offense. And 6-time All-Star Einar Tatis, signed for a mere $8.4 million over two years, brings an .889 career OPS into the heart of the New Orleans lineup. Bounceback candidate Luis Seguignol was also a shrewd pickup, though the acquisitions of pitchers Carmen Franco and Rico Lee were patchwork moves that show this team still has holes to fill. It does seem to have been a positive offseason for this squad, and it might just be enough to overtake Tampa Bay, but if the Thunder's core players come roaring back this year, New Orleans may regret not investing in more of an eventful offseason. A big comeback year from $19.9 million man Steve Minor, who managed only 21 homers and 15 doubles last year, would also go a very long way toward a division crown.
Nashville Nala Bears
The Nala Bears' local ad slogan says it all: "The Time Is Now." Management truly believes that Nashville will shine this year, and with the team having increased its win totals over the past 3 years, they are certainly moving rapidly in the right direction. This team is a far cry from the ones that lost a combined 335 games from seasons 7 through 9, and they continued to shed reminders of their losing past with the departures of Doug Hall and Ken Abbott this winter. The brightest spots from last year, i.e. the youth, are all returning, and they look to show off their true abilities this year. Ben Morton, in particular, is ready to turn the corner and show that he can carry a franchise with his bat, and Tino House and Wilfredo Aquino will both look to establish themselves with their first full-season campaigns this year. The Nalas made only 3 notable new acquisitions: Rob Michaels (a Gold Glove fielder with a decent bat), Kevin Richardson (a fixer upper in the back of the rotation or long relief) and Junior Lee (a waiver wire pickup likely brought on for his defense). Pitching will be the weakness of this club; Andres Park (he's 28 already?) will be the anchor of the staff, coming off a 4.42 ERA last season, and they will look for rookie Bruce Fuller to contribute, but talent is a bit thin. While reinforcements are coming (and plentiful), the staff will be lacking this season, and that may torpedo the Nalas' playoff hopes before they ever get off the ground. This is undoubtedly a team headed in the right direction, and there is a possibility that they will shock everyone this year with a playoff run, but a run at .500 is more likely. Maybe the time isn't right now, but it's coming... and soon.
El Paso Illegals
There's not much to say about El Paso because, quite frankly, they haven't done much to better their situation this year. They let professional gopherballers Napoleon Kinkade, Benny Velazquez, and Pedro Batista all walk, but they went out and replaced them with the likes of Jaime Paronto (5.91 minor league ERA) and Catfish Rhodes. They signed minor leaguer Bing Maduro, though if he's getting paid more than the mascot, they got ripped off (and I doubt the mascot is making more than $6,000,000 this year). They also overpaid for throwaway Kane Dolan ($5.5 mil this year). I'm surprised the team bothered to show up to spring training following this display of apathy. At least El Paso fans will get to look forward to the draft.
PREDICTION
1. New Orleans
2. Tampa Bay
3. Nashville
4. El Paso
I have a hunch that New Orleans will win the division by a slight margin, just like Tampa did last year. An injury here, a lucky break there, and it could all change, but I don't think either team wins this division by more than 5 games. Nashville believes they have what it takes to compete this year, but with the wild card seeming like a real longshot, they'll have to leapfrog two established teams this season for the division title if they want to get a playoff berth, and it seems unlikely they'll add the 20-or-so wins it will require to make that happen. Fortunately, they'll still finish at least 25 or 30 games ahead of El Paso, who can start booking October vacations right now.
Blake Robinson Injury
I feel compelled to update my thoughts on Minnesota's place in the AL North given the recent injury of Blake Robinson, who will spend the rest of the season on the bench after blowing out his elbow in a recent Spring Training game against Colorado Springs.
Robinson was sort of an interesting specimen; after failing to meet expectations in Syracuse's minor league system, he was shipped to rival Minnesota, where he struggled in his rookie season. But he turned it on in a big way last year, as he broke out with a 3.81 ERA in 182 innings at the age of 26. With the loss of Jonathan Grebeck, the PeaceFrog were undoubtedly hoping for Robinson to have a monster year and emerge as a key member of the rotation.
Robinson wasn't a make-or-break part of this team, but his absence will definitely plague an already hurting rotation. As it stands, it seems Minnesota's rotation will shape up to be Phil Shaw, Dan Shipley, Omar Siqueiros, William Busby, and Wesley Quinn. Only one of these pitchers (Siqueiros) is under age 32, and these 5 pitchers combined for a 4.30 ERA last season. Minnesota's still a great team, and they may still win around 95 games this year, but in this division, it's very difficult to leave them at 3rd in my predictions, so I am altering my AL North prediction: Milwaukee finishes 3rd (with a wild card berth) and Minnesota barely finishes fourth. Again, it's still anybody's division, but losing a pitcher like Robinson can only serve to hurt the PeaceFrog this season.
Robinson was sort of an interesting specimen; after failing to meet expectations in Syracuse's minor league system, he was shipped to rival Minnesota, where he struggled in his rookie season. But he turned it on in a big way last year, as he broke out with a 3.81 ERA in 182 innings at the age of 26. With the loss of Jonathan Grebeck, the PeaceFrog were undoubtedly hoping for Robinson to have a monster year and emerge as a key member of the rotation.
Robinson wasn't a make-or-break part of this team, but his absence will definitely plague an already hurting rotation. As it stands, it seems Minnesota's rotation will shape up to be Phil Shaw, Dan Shipley, Omar Siqueiros, William Busby, and Wesley Quinn. Only one of these pitchers (Siqueiros) is under age 32, and these 5 pitchers combined for a 4.30 ERA last season. Minnesota's still a great team, and they may still win around 95 games this year, but in this division, it's very difficult to leave them at 3rd in my predictions, so I am altering my AL North prediction: Milwaukee finishes 3rd (with a wild card berth) and Minnesota barely finishes fourth. Again, it's still anybody's division, but losing a pitcher like Robinson can only serve to hurt the PeaceFrog this season.
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